Tropical Storm Katia
Tropical Depression #12 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Katia early this morning as the entire system is better organized. Currently there is 15 to 20 knots of shear affecting Katia and this shear is forecast to decrease by later today and tonight with intensification likely from this afternoon into this weekend. It is anticipated that Katia will reach hurricane strength during the day Wednesday and major hurricane strength by late this weekend.
Katia is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 16 to 17 mph and the storm is being steered by a ridge of high pressure located to the north. Yesterday, all of the global model guidance pointed to a likely scenario of Katia being steered out to sea due to a upper level low pressure system located over the central Atlantic. Since then the global models are trending towards a weaker and less amplified upper level low pressure system that lifts out with a ridge of high pressure rebuilding to the north of the storm. The latest GFS model forecasts a track that takes Katia to the north of the Leeward Islands and severely impacts Bermuda next Thursday. The European operational model forecasts a track that takes Katia to the north of the Lesser Antilles and then on a track northward halfway between the US East Coast and Bermuda. The ensemble members of the European model are further west than the operational model and imply a very close brush with the US East Coast with a 10 day forecast position of 28 North Latitude, 73.5 West Longitude. Two things to point out are that any further shifts to the south in the forecast track will put the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico at a significant threat from Katia. All of our friends in the northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor Katia. The second is that given the trends in the upper air pattern forecast, I suspect we may see further shifts to the west in the forecast track of Katia by the model guidance. It is way, way too early to be confident or certain on any one forecast track for Katia.
As of this morning, I am still leaning towards a track that takes Katia very close to, if not right over the northeastern Caribbean on Sunday and Monday followed by a track that takes Katia just east of the Bahamas next Wednesday and then northward near the US East Coast late next week and next weekend. The highest threat areas after moving away from the northeastern Caribbean for Katia are Bermuda, the Canadian Maritimes and possibly eastern New England.
Potential Development In The Gulf Of Mexico Late This Week Into This Weekend:
I am closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean that is forecast to track into the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours and potentially develop into a tropical storm this weekend in the western Gulf of Mexico. All of the global model guidance are now on board with this type of scenario with the GFS model forecasting a track that slowly moves along the central and western coast of Louisiana late this weekend and then along the Texas coast as we get into Monday and Tuesday. The European model, on the other hand, forecasts that this system will track onshore into south Texas next Tuesday as a upper end tropical storm or a hurricane. The NAM model, for what its worth, forecasts that this disturbance will track into the Gulf of Mexico during the day Wednesday and develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm by Thursday. The NAM model also forecasts that this system may develop quickly as it nears the Texas coast by this weekend.
Given the fact that we have a tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean that will track into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday and also that environmental conditions are expected to be quite favorable in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend; I think the chances of tropical development is fairly high. The NAM model may be a little fast with the development and I foresee a scenario that this develops into a tropical storm as it nears the Texas coast on Sunday and Monday and takes advantage of the geography of the coast to create an increase in spin. Where on the Texas coast could this potential tropical storm make landfall? I am leaning towards the central and lower Texas coast given the overall synoptic setup of high pressure to the north.
What is potentially awesome news is that the Louisiana and Texas coasts may receive some much needed rainfall this coming weekend into next week. I will be monitoring this tropical disturbance over the coming days and will keep you all updated.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557
Tropical Depression #12 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Katia early this morning as the entire system is better organized. Currently there is 15 to 20 knots of shear affecting Katia and this shear is forecast to decrease by later today and tonight with intensification likely from this afternoon into this weekend. It is anticipated that Katia will reach hurricane strength during the day Wednesday and major hurricane strength by late this weekend.
Katia is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 16 to 17 mph and the storm is being steered by a ridge of high pressure located to the north. Yesterday, all of the global model guidance pointed to a likely scenario of Katia being steered out to sea due to a upper level low pressure system located over the central Atlantic. Since then the global models are trending towards a weaker and less amplified upper level low pressure system that lifts out with a ridge of high pressure rebuilding to the north of the storm. The latest GFS model forecasts a track that takes Katia to the north of the Leeward Islands and severely impacts Bermuda next Thursday. The European operational model forecasts a track that takes Katia to the north of the Lesser Antilles and then on a track northward halfway between the US East Coast and Bermuda. The ensemble members of the European model are further west than the operational model and imply a very close brush with the US East Coast with a 10 day forecast position of 28 North Latitude, 73.5 West Longitude. Two things to point out are that any further shifts to the south in the forecast track will put the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico at a significant threat from Katia. All of our friends in the northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor Katia. The second is that given the trends in the upper air pattern forecast, I suspect we may see further shifts to the west in the forecast track of Katia by the model guidance. It is way, way too early to be confident or certain on any one forecast track for Katia.
As of this morning, I am still leaning towards a track that takes Katia very close to, if not right over the northeastern Caribbean on Sunday and Monday followed by a track that takes Katia just east of the Bahamas next Wednesday and then northward near the US East Coast late next week and next weekend. The highest threat areas after moving away from the northeastern Caribbean for Katia are Bermuda, the Canadian Maritimes and possibly eastern New England.
Potential Development In The Gulf Of Mexico Late This Week Into This Weekend:
I am closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean that is forecast to track into the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours and potentially develop into a tropical storm this weekend in the western Gulf of Mexico. All of the global model guidance are now on board with this type of scenario with the GFS model forecasting a track that slowly moves along the central and western coast of Louisiana late this weekend and then along the Texas coast as we get into Monday and Tuesday. The European model, on the other hand, forecasts that this system will track onshore into south Texas next Tuesday as a upper end tropical storm or a hurricane. The NAM model, for what its worth, forecasts that this disturbance will track into the Gulf of Mexico during the day Wednesday and develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm by Thursday. The NAM model also forecasts that this system may develop quickly as it nears the Texas coast by this weekend.
Given the fact that we have a tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean that will track into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday and also that environmental conditions are expected to be quite favorable in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend; I think the chances of tropical development is fairly high. The NAM model may be a little fast with the development and I foresee a scenario that this develops into a tropical storm as it nears the Texas coast on Sunday and Monday and takes advantage of the geography of the coast to create an increase in spin. Where on the Texas coast could this potential tropical storm make landfall? I am leaning towards the central and lower Texas coast given the overall synoptic setup of high pressure to the north.
What is potentially awesome news is that the Louisiana and Texas coasts may receive some much needed rainfall this coming weekend into next week. I will be monitoring this tropical disturbance over the coming days and will keep you all updated.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557
