Monday, July 21, 2008


...Dolly now over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico... at 1100 am EDT...1500 UTC...a Hurricane Watch is issued for theTexas coast from Brownsville northward to Port O'Connor. AHurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area...generally within 36 hours. At 1100 am EDT...a tropical storm watch is issued for the Texascoast from north of Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass. A tropicalstorm watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. At 1100 am EDT...the government of Mexico has issued a HurricaneWatch from Rio San Fernando Mexico northward to the U.S.Border...and a tropical storm watch from La Pesca Mexico northwardto Rio San Fernando. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsulaof Mexico from the border with Belize to Campeche Mexico. For storm information specific to your area...including possibleinland watches and warnings...please monitor products issuedby your local weather office. At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Dolly waslocated near latitude 22.1 north...longitude 89.5 west or about 55miles... 90 km...north-northeast of Progreso Mexico. Dolly is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr. Agradual decrease in forward speed is forecast during the nextcouple of days...with little change in the direction of motion. Onthis track...Dolly will be approaching the coast of the westernGulf of Mexico by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with highergusts. Strengthening is forecast...and Dolly could become ahurricane by tomorrow. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 kmfrom the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent aircraft datais 1005 mb...29.68 inches. Dolly is expected to produce total rain accumulations of two to fourinches across the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico withisolated maximum amounts up to six inches. Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...22.1 N...89.5 W. Movementtoward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National HurricaneCenter at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500PM EDT. $$Forecaster Knabb