Ran into Buzz and Quinten down near Cadillac last night...both sat in with Jr and the Journeymen making for a great show!
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Friday, January 23, 2009
France’s AAA Rating May Be Under Stress as Debt Rises, ING Says
France’s AAA rating may be at risk as the deepening economic slump erodes tax revenue and forces the country to raise borrowing, according to ING Groep NV.
“I’m not saying France is going to be downgraded, but the level of debt puts them in a spot of danger,” Padhraic Garvey, head of investment-grade debt strategy in London at ING, said in an interview. “Their AAA rating is under stress.”
The French government increased its 2009 budget deficit forecast for the third time in 2 1/2 months on Jan. 20 to the highest in 14 years. Public debt will rise to as high as 70 percent of gross domestic product this year, from 67 percent in 2008, Budget Minister Eric Woerth said.
The extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year French bonds instead of the benchmark German bunds widened to 57 basis points on Jan. 21, the most since the euro’s debut a decade ago. The average yield spread in the past 10 years was 8 basis points.
The 16-nation economy will shrink 1.9 percent this year, the first contraction since the euro’s introduction, the European Commission forecast on Jan. 19, cutting its outlook amid the worst financial crisis since World War II. The commission expects France’s deficit to swell to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2009 as the economy contracts by 1.8 percent, the severest recession in six decades.
Standard & Poor’s cut Spain’s AAA sovereign rating by one step to AA+ on Jan. 19. Greece’s classification was lowered to A- from A five days earlier while Portugal’s rating was reduced to A+ from AA- on Jan. 21.
France’s AAA rating may be at risk as the deepening economic slump erodes tax revenue and forces the country to raise borrowing, according to ING Groep NV.
“I’m not saying France is going to be downgraded, but the level of debt puts them in a spot of danger,” Padhraic Garvey, head of investment-grade debt strategy in London at ING, said in an interview. “Their AAA rating is under stress.”
The French government increased its 2009 budget deficit forecast for the third time in 2 1/2 months on Jan. 20 to the highest in 14 years. Public debt will rise to as high as 70 percent of gross domestic product this year, from 67 percent in 2008, Budget Minister Eric Woerth said.
The extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year French bonds instead of the benchmark German bunds widened to 57 basis points on Jan. 21, the most since the euro’s debut a decade ago. The average yield spread in the past 10 years was 8 basis points.
The 16-nation economy will shrink 1.9 percent this year, the first contraction since the euro’s introduction, the European Commission forecast on Jan. 19, cutting its outlook amid the worst financial crisis since World War II. The commission expects France’s deficit to swell to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2009 as the economy contracts by 1.8 percent, the severest recession in six decades.
Standard & Poor’s cut Spain’s AAA sovereign rating by one step to AA+ on Jan. 19. Greece’s classification was lowered to A- from A five days earlier while Portugal’s rating was reduced to A+ from AA- on Jan. 21.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Disney sends buyout offers to 600 parks execs
Wed Jan 21, 2009 4:02pm EST
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssT...49402820090121
LOS ANGELES, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Walt Disney Co (DIS.N) said on Wednesday it sent voluntary buyout offers to 600 executives at its domestic theme parks to cut costs amid an economic meltdown that has depressed attendance and prompted the company to deeply discount Walt Disney World stays.
Disney said if the buyout offer, which expires Feb. 6, does not produce enough reductions, the company will consider layoffs.
A company spokeswoman declined to say what amount of savings or head count reductions Disney was trying to achieve, or what the cost of the terminations would be.
The buyout offers come about six weeks after Disney said its hotel bookings had started to rebound as a result of the discounts. The move appears to be part of "significant" costs savings the company promised investors late last year.
Disney Chief Financial Officer Tom Staggs said at that time that hotel bookings were down about 6 percent in the company's first and second quarters, an improvement over the 10 percent drop the company previously forecast for that period.
In a letter dated Jan. 22, Disney told employees it needed to streamline its executive work force "at all levels" to reduce its cost structure.
The buyouts would become effective between mid-February and the end of March, the letter from Jayne Parker, senior vice president of human resources, said.
Disney shares closed up about 4.9 percent to $21.23 on Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange. (Reporting by Gina Keating; editing by Carol Bishopric)
Wed Jan 21, 2009 4:02pm EST
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssT...49402820090121
LOS ANGELES, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Walt Disney Co (DIS.N) said on Wednesday it sent voluntary buyout offers to 600 executives at its domestic theme parks to cut costs amid an economic meltdown that has depressed attendance and prompted the company to deeply discount Walt Disney World stays.
Disney said if the buyout offer, which expires Feb. 6, does not produce enough reductions, the company will consider layoffs.
A company spokeswoman declined to say what amount of savings or head count reductions Disney was trying to achieve, or what the cost of the terminations would be.
The buyout offers come about six weeks after Disney said its hotel bookings had started to rebound as a result of the discounts. The move appears to be part of "significant" costs savings the company promised investors late last year.
Disney Chief Financial Officer Tom Staggs said at that time that hotel bookings were down about 6 percent in the company's first and second quarters, an improvement over the 10 percent drop the company previously forecast for that period.
In a letter dated Jan. 22, Disney told employees it needed to streamline its executive work force "at all levels" to reduce its cost structure.
The buyouts would become effective between mid-February and the end of March, the letter from Jayne Parker, senior vice president of human resources, said.
Disney shares closed up about 4.9 percent to $21.23 on Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange. (Reporting by Gina Keating; editing by Carol Bishopric)
http://jengafinance.blogspot.com/200...s-to-halt.html
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Trade Grinds to a Halt
Over the last 6-9 months, we have seen many indicators of weakening demand and the impact on trade. For example, the collapse of the Baltic Dry Index - down more than 90%. This reflected lease rates for freighters and indirectly demand for bulk cargo capacity. The initial drops in shipping volume were modest but had a severe impact on commodity prices and shipping rates as the global economy swung from a sellers market to a buyers market. Now we are starting to see the full impact of credit withdrawal. Our thesis has long been that excessive and EZ credit (TM) were the root cause of massive false demand that radically distorted the consumer economies, those who manufactured and exported to them and the raw material suppliers to the manufacturers. The chain of causation has proven out and now we will see just how large that distortion was.
Domestic Strife
Our back of the envelope calculation is that first-order effects in the US will be 10% of GDP, with further ripple effects from there. Our assumptions are fairly simple. Net additions to household debt ranged between $800 billion to $1.2 trillion from 2002 to 2007. That number fell to $77 billion in Q2 and negative $117 billion in Q3. All data come from the Fed Z.1 Flow of Funds release. We merely assume that net consumer credit will go to zero, whereas it could go severely negative as defaults and debt repayment have already caused outstanding credit to fall. We further assume that household savings will rebound from approximately zero to halfway back to the historic 10% range. The cumulative impact would be to reduce personal consumption by $1.3-1.6 trillion or between 9% and 12% of GDP.
Granted not all of this will hit US production. Much of the damage will occur in the export economies as we stop buying from them. We have repeatedly argued as much. Outsourcing which destroyed jobs in the US and made the target nations prosperous is now going in reverse and this should provide a partial circuit-breaker to the US economy which MAY prevent a consumption-employment-income-consumption death spiral like the 1930s. On the other hand, business spending is also falling and that swing is far more difficult to estimate. For modeling purposes, the hit to US output from lower capital spending should be roughly equal in size to the reduced demand for imports so US GDP probably declines 9-12% - straddling the 10% line of the textbook definition of depression.
Unless people dig themselves even deeper into a debt hole, households will not take on further debt - either out of prudence or inability. It would have been extraordinarily difficult to stop this a year and virtually impossible now. Once the (misplaced) confidence evaporated, the conclusion became inevitable.
Globo Stop
I'd like to thank Karl Denninger of Ticker Forum for his inimitable description of the current crisis. The PG version of which runs:
We're screwed, but they're screwed worse.We are indeed seeing just how bad the rest of the world has it right now. The NY Timesdid an excellent piece over the weekend that described the rapid decline of world trade. Here's the money quote:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/17/bu.../17charts.html
Over all, the total reported exports from those 43 countries peaked in July, at $1.03 trillion. By November, the figure was down 26 percent, to $766 billion. Since the figures are seasonally adjusted, the monthly figures should be comparable.This is not just a problem for Asia but a global one. German exports fell 21%. Over a quarter of all world trade went away in only FOUR MONTHS. I think this is a pretty good example of just how much credit distorted the US and world economy. At some point, credit goes from a useful organ to a cancer. We have often spoken of the Universal Debt bubble and the breathtaking size and scope of it. It was "fun" while it lasted but the bill for the UDB is about to come due. The check is on its way to the table and we're going to spend a lot of time arguing over who gets to pay for it. George Washington spoke of government but it applies to credit as well and the distinction between the government and the banks grows ever smaller:
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
REMARKS OF PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA
Inaugural Address
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Washington, D.C.
My fellow citizens:
I stand here today humbled by the task before us, grateful for the trust you have bestowed, mindful of the sacrifices borne by our ancestors. I thank President Bush for his service to our nation, as well as the generosity and cooperation he has shown throughout this transition.
Forty-four Americans have now taken the presidential oath. The words have been spoken during rising tides of prosperity and the still waters of peace. Yet, every so often the oath is taken amidst gathering clouds and raging storms. At these moments, America has carried on not simply because of the skill or vision of those in high office, but because We the People have remained faithful to the ideals of our forbearers, and true to our founding documents.
So it has been. So it must be with this generation of Americans.
That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. Our nation is at war, against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred. Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some, but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age. Homes have been lost; jobs shed; businesses shuttered. Our health care is too costly; our schools fail too many; and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet.
These are the indicators of crisis, subject to data and statistics. Less measurable but no less profound is a sapping of confidence across our land - a nagging fear that America's decline is inevitable, and that the next generation must lower its sights.
Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real. They are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this, America - they will be met.
On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord.
On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn out dogmas, that for far too long have strangled our politics.
We remain a young nation, but in the words of Scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things. The time has come to reaffirm our enduring spirit; to choose our better history; to carry forward that precious gift, that noble idea, passed on from generation to generation: the God-given promise that all are equal, all are free, and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness.
In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned. Our journey has never been one of short-cuts or settling for less. It has not been the path for the faint-hearted - for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame. Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things - some celebrated but more often men and women obscure in their labor, who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom.
For us, they packed up their few worldly possessions and traveled across oceans in search of a new life.
For us, they toiled in sweatshops and settled the West; endured the lash of the whip and plowed the hard earth.
For us, they fought and died, in places like Concord and Gettysburg; Normandy and Khe Sahn.
Time and again these men and women struggled and sacrificed and worked till their hands were raw so that we might live a better life. They saw America as bigger than the sum of our individual ambitions; greater than all the differences of birth or wealth or faction.
This is the journey we continue today. We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions - that time has surely passed. Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.
For everywhere we look, there is work to be done. The state of the economy calls for action, bold and swift, and we will act - not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth. We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together. We will restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology's wonders to raise health care's quality and lower its cost. We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age. All this we can do. And all this we will do.
Now, there are some who question the scale of our ambitions - who suggest that our system cannot tolerate too many big plans. Their memories are short. For they have forgotten what this country has already done; what free men and women can achieve when imagination is joined to common purpose, and necessity to courage.
What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them - that the stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long no longer apply. The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works - whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified. Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end. And those of us who manage the public's dollars will be held to account - to spend wisely, reform bad habits, and do our business in the light of day - because only then can we restore the vital trust between a people and their government.
Nor is the question before us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth and expand freedom is unmatched, but this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control - and that a nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous. The success of our economy has always depended not just on the size of our Gross Domestic Product, but on the reach of our prosperity; on our ability to extend opportunity to every willing heart - not out of charity, but because it is the surest route to our common good.
As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals. Our Founding Fathers, faced with perils we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations. Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience's sake. And so to all other peoples and governments who are watching today, from the grandest capitals to the small village where my father was born: know that America is a friend of each nation and every man, woman, and child who seeks a future of peace and dignity, and that we are ready to lead once more.
Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.
We are the keepers of this legacy. Guided by these principles once more, we can meet those new threats that demand even greater effort - even greater cooperation and understanding between nations. We will begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people, and forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan. With old friends and former foes, we will work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat, and roll back the specter of a warming planet. We will not apologize for our way of life, nor will we waver in its defense, and for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken; you cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you.
For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus - and non-believers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth; and because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation, and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and more united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass; that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve; that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself; and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.
To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society's ills on the West - know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy. To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.
To the people of poor nations, we pledge to work alongside you to make your farms flourish and let clean waters flow; to nourish starved bodies and feed hungry minds. And to those nations like ours that enjoy relative plenty, we say we can no longer afford indifference to suffering outside our borders; nor can we consume the world's resources without regard to effect. For the world has changed, and we must change with it.
As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains. They have something to tell us today, just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages. We honor them not only because they are guardians of our liberty, but because they embody the spirit of service; a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves. And yet, at this moment - a moment that will define a generation - it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all.
For as much as government can do and must do, it is ultimately the faith and determination of the American people upon which this nation relies. It is the kindness to take in a stranger when the levees break, the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job which sees us through our darkest hours. It is the firefighter's courage to storm a stairway filled with smoke, but also a parent's willingness to nurture a child, that finally decides our fate.
Our challenges may be new. The instruments with which we meet them may be new. But those values upon which our success depends - hard work and honesty, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism - these things are old. These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history. What is demanded then is a return to these truths. What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility - a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation, and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character, than giving our all to a difficult task.
This is the price and the promise of citizenship.
This is the source of our confidence - the knowledge that God calls on us to shape an uncertain destiny.
This is the meaning of our liberty and our creed - why men and women and children of every race and every faith can join in celebration across this magnificent mall, and why a man whose father less than sixty years ago might not have been served at a local restaurant can now stand before you to take a most sacred oath.
So let us mark this day with remembrance, of who we are and how far we have traveled. In the year of America's birth, in the coldest of months, a small band of patriots huddled by dying campfires on the shores of an icy river. The capital was abandoned. The enemy was advancing. The snow was stained with blood. At a moment when the outcome of our revolution was most in doubt, the father of our nation ordered these words be read to the people:
"Let it be told to the future world...that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive...that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet [it]."
America. In the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words. With hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come. Let it be said by our children's children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God's grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.
Inaugural Address
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Washington, D.C.
My fellow citizens:
I stand here today humbled by the task before us, grateful for the trust you have bestowed, mindful of the sacrifices borne by our ancestors. I thank President Bush for his service to our nation, as well as the generosity and cooperation he has shown throughout this transition.
Forty-four Americans have now taken the presidential oath. The words have been spoken during rising tides of prosperity and the still waters of peace. Yet, every so often the oath is taken amidst gathering clouds and raging storms. At these moments, America has carried on not simply because of the skill or vision of those in high office, but because We the People have remained faithful to the ideals of our forbearers, and true to our founding documents.
So it has been. So it must be with this generation of Americans.
That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. Our nation is at war, against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred. Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some, but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age. Homes have been lost; jobs shed; businesses shuttered. Our health care is too costly; our schools fail too many; and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet.
These are the indicators of crisis, subject to data and statistics. Less measurable but no less profound is a sapping of confidence across our land - a nagging fear that America's decline is inevitable, and that the next generation must lower its sights.
Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real. They are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this, America - they will be met.
On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord.
On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn out dogmas, that for far too long have strangled our politics.
We remain a young nation, but in the words of Scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things. The time has come to reaffirm our enduring spirit; to choose our better history; to carry forward that precious gift, that noble idea, passed on from generation to generation: the God-given promise that all are equal, all are free, and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness.
In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned. Our journey has never been one of short-cuts or settling for less. It has not been the path for the faint-hearted - for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame. Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things - some celebrated but more often men and women obscure in their labor, who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom.
For us, they packed up their few worldly possessions and traveled across oceans in search of a new life.
For us, they toiled in sweatshops and settled the West; endured the lash of the whip and plowed the hard earth.
For us, they fought and died, in places like Concord and Gettysburg; Normandy and Khe Sahn.
Time and again these men and women struggled and sacrificed and worked till their hands were raw so that we might live a better life. They saw America as bigger than the sum of our individual ambitions; greater than all the differences of birth or wealth or faction.
This is the journey we continue today. We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions - that time has surely passed. Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.
For everywhere we look, there is work to be done. The state of the economy calls for action, bold and swift, and we will act - not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth. We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together. We will restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology's wonders to raise health care's quality and lower its cost. We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age. All this we can do. And all this we will do.
Now, there are some who question the scale of our ambitions - who suggest that our system cannot tolerate too many big plans. Their memories are short. For they have forgotten what this country has already done; what free men and women can achieve when imagination is joined to common purpose, and necessity to courage.
What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them - that the stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long no longer apply. The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works - whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified. Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end. And those of us who manage the public's dollars will be held to account - to spend wisely, reform bad habits, and do our business in the light of day - because only then can we restore the vital trust between a people and their government.
Nor is the question before us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth and expand freedom is unmatched, but this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control - and that a nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous. The success of our economy has always depended not just on the size of our Gross Domestic Product, but on the reach of our prosperity; on our ability to extend opportunity to every willing heart - not out of charity, but because it is the surest route to our common good.
As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals. Our Founding Fathers, faced with perils we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations. Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience's sake. And so to all other peoples and governments who are watching today, from the grandest capitals to the small village where my father was born: know that America is a friend of each nation and every man, woman, and child who seeks a future of peace and dignity, and that we are ready to lead once more.
Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.
We are the keepers of this legacy. Guided by these principles once more, we can meet those new threats that demand even greater effort - even greater cooperation and understanding between nations. We will begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people, and forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan. With old friends and former foes, we will work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat, and roll back the specter of a warming planet. We will not apologize for our way of life, nor will we waver in its defense, and for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken; you cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you.
For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus - and non-believers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth; and because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation, and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and more united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass; that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve; that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself; and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.
To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society's ills on the West - know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy. To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.
To the people of poor nations, we pledge to work alongside you to make your farms flourish and let clean waters flow; to nourish starved bodies and feed hungry minds. And to those nations like ours that enjoy relative plenty, we say we can no longer afford indifference to suffering outside our borders; nor can we consume the world's resources without regard to effect. For the world has changed, and we must change with it.
As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains. They have something to tell us today, just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages. We honor them not only because they are guardians of our liberty, but because they embody the spirit of service; a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves. And yet, at this moment - a moment that will define a generation - it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all.
For as much as government can do and must do, it is ultimately the faith and determination of the American people upon which this nation relies. It is the kindness to take in a stranger when the levees break, the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job which sees us through our darkest hours. It is the firefighter's courage to storm a stairway filled with smoke, but also a parent's willingness to nurture a child, that finally decides our fate.
Our challenges may be new. The instruments with which we meet them may be new. But those values upon which our success depends - hard work and honesty, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism - these things are old. These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history. What is demanded then is a return to these truths. What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility - a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation, and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character, than giving our all to a difficult task.
This is the price and the promise of citizenship.
This is the source of our confidence - the knowledge that God calls on us to shape an uncertain destiny.
This is the meaning of our liberty and our creed - why men and women and children of every race and every faith can join in celebration across this magnificent mall, and why a man whose father less than sixty years ago might not have been served at a local restaurant can now stand before you to take a most sacred oath.
So let us mark this day with remembrance, of who we are and how far we have traveled. In the year of America's birth, in the coldest of months, a small band of patriots huddled by dying campfires on the shores of an icy river. The capital was abandoned. The enemy was advancing. The snow was stained with blood. At a moment when the outcome of our revolution was most in doubt, the father of our nation ordered these words be read to the people:
"Let it be told to the future world...that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive...that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet [it]."
America. In the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words. With hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come. Let it be said by our children's children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God's grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Not my favorite way to start the day on a Saturday!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...PoA&refer=home
Fed May Purchase Treasuries in Days to Ease Credit, UBS Says
By Whitney Kisling
Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve may purchase Treasuries within the next few days or weeks as it broadens its policy beyond interest rate cuts to ease credit conditions amid the worst recession in 25 years, according to UBS AG.
“Fed officials use every chance they get to highlight Treasury purchases as an important arrow in their quiver,” William O’Donnell, U.S. government bond strategist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in a research report today. “It now appears as if the Fed may use Treasury purchases as a blunt tool to bring loan rates down further. This makes it more likely that Treasury purchases come sooner.”
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke reiterated Jan. 13 that he’s considering buying long-term Treasuries as a way to bring down borrowing rates and unfreeze private credit markets as U.S. economic data and government reports continue to show the recession is deepening.
The economy weakened in all regions during the past month, the Fed said the following day, as access to credit remains locked, forcing consumers to cut back on spending.
Lower rates could “spill over into private borrowing rates much more broadly,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said yesterday in a speech. UBS said Yellen’s comments refer to more than mortgage rates, which the Fed already started trying to lower this month by buying $500 billion of mortgage-backed securities.
‘Denominator Effects’
“By buying back Treasury debt, all loan markets should benefit via ‘denominator effects’ by further lowering base rates,” said O’Donnell of UBS, one of the 17 primary dealers that trade directly with the Fed.
Treasury purchases may help to keep yields low as President-elect Barack Obama aims to roll out an $825 billion stimulus plan that will be funded with government debt.
Yields on 10-year notes rose 7 basis points to 2.27 percent at 12:19 p.m. in New York. The yield dropped last month to the lowest level on record when investors sought government debt as a haven amid the collapse of global credit markets.
To contact the reporter on this story: Whitney Kisling in New York at wkisling@bloomberg.net
********
One has to really question whether or not this is in actuality Monetizing the debt?
"The Federal Reserve becomes the Buyer and Seller of US Gov't debt, there is no 'Market" in which to sell the debt as it's too risky. The Fed makes all it can buy and The Fed buys all it makes, and it's a real whirlpool once this track has been decided upon. This only serves to make Finance Market problems for the US Dollar exponentially WORSE, it is only a time-staving move for an inevitable US Dollar collapse. The "repugnance" of US Debt feeds on itself, NOBODY wants to hold onto US debt since it's likely to lose value at any rate, at any time. There is no more consistency to assess risk on. US debt will not be sellable to anyone BUT The Federal Reserve. It becomes in essence, worthless."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...PoA&refer=home
Fed May Purchase Treasuries in Days to Ease Credit, UBS Says
By Whitney Kisling
Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve may purchase Treasuries within the next few days or weeks as it broadens its policy beyond interest rate cuts to ease credit conditions amid the worst recession in 25 years, according to UBS AG.
“Fed officials use every chance they get to highlight Treasury purchases as an important arrow in their quiver,” William O’Donnell, U.S. government bond strategist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in a research report today. “It now appears as if the Fed may use Treasury purchases as a blunt tool to bring loan rates down further. This makes it more likely that Treasury purchases come sooner.”
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke reiterated Jan. 13 that he’s considering buying long-term Treasuries as a way to bring down borrowing rates and unfreeze private credit markets as U.S. economic data and government reports continue to show the recession is deepening.
The economy weakened in all regions during the past month, the Fed said the following day, as access to credit remains locked, forcing consumers to cut back on spending.
Lower rates could “spill over into private borrowing rates much more broadly,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said yesterday in a speech. UBS said Yellen’s comments refer to more than mortgage rates, which the Fed already started trying to lower this month by buying $500 billion of mortgage-backed securities.
‘Denominator Effects’
“By buying back Treasury debt, all loan markets should benefit via ‘denominator effects’ by further lowering base rates,” said O’Donnell of UBS, one of the 17 primary dealers that trade directly with the Fed.
Treasury purchases may help to keep yields low as President-elect Barack Obama aims to roll out an $825 billion stimulus plan that will be funded with government debt.
Yields on 10-year notes rose 7 basis points to 2.27 percent at 12:19 p.m. in New York. The yield dropped last month to the lowest level on record when investors sought government debt as a haven amid the collapse of global credit markets.
To contact the reporter on this story: Whitney Kisling in New York at wkisling@bloomberg.net
********
One has to really question whether or not this is in actuality Monetizing the debt?
"The Federal Reserve becomes the Buyer and Seller of US Gov't debt, there is no 'Market" in which to sell the debt as it's too risky. The Fed makes all it can buy and The Fed buys all it makes, and it's a real whirlpool once this track has been decided upon. This only serves to make Finance Market problems for the US Dollar exponentially WORSE, it is only a time-staving move for an inevitable US Dollar collapse. The "repugnance" of US Debt feeds on itself, NOBODY wants to hold onto US debt since it's likely to lose value at any rate, at any time. There is no more consistency to assess risk on. US debt will not be sellable to anyone BUT The Federal Reserve. It becomes in essence, worthless."
Friday, January 16, 2009
Thursday, January 15, 2009
1787, Alexander Tyler, a Scottish history professor at the University of
Edinburgh, had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some
2,000 years prior:
"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a
permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until
the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts
from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for
the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with
the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal
policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship."
"The average age of the worlds greatest civilizations from the beginning of
history, has been about 200 years.
During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the
following sequence:
1. From bondage to spiritual faith;
2. From spiritual faith to great courage;
3. From courage to liberty;
4. From liberty to abundance;
5. From abundance to complacency;
6. From complacency to apathy;
7. From apathy to dependence;
8. From dependence back into bondage "
Edinburgh, had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some
2,000 years prior:
"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a
permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until
the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts
from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for
the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with
the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal
policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship."
"The average age of the worlds greatest civilizations from the beginning of
history, has been about 200 years.
During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the
following sequence:
1. From bondage to spiritual faith;
2. From spiritual faith to great courage;
3. From courage to liberty;
4. From liberty to abundance;
5. From abundance to complacency;
6. From complacency to apathy;
7. From apathy to dependence;
8. From dependence back into bondage "
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
NOOOOO! Not the COFFEE!!!!!!
Coffee shortage brewing after poor Brazil crop
By Chris Flood
Published: January 13 2009 12:11 | Last updated: January 13 2009 19:26
A substantial fall in Brazilian coffee production this year looks likely to drag the global coffee market into a supply deficit in 2009-10, according to the International Coffee Organisation which released its latest monthly report on Monday.
The ICO said Brazil’scoffee production, which follows a biennial cycle (high output one year followed by low the next), could fall from 46m 60kg bags in 2008-09 to between 36.9m and 38.8m bags this year, a drop of 16 to 20 per cent.
The ICO said the preliminary crop forecast for Brazil implied a shortfall of at least 5m bags for world supply in 2009-10 but cautioned that a more accurate picture would emerge once production estimates from other countries were published in the near future.
In New York, ICE March arabica coffee futures firmed 0.2 per cent at $1.1470 per pound following a drop of 17.7 per cent last year.
Global coffee consumption in calendar year 2008 is estimated at 128m bags, a rise of 2.4 per cent on the previous year and matching annual consumption growth since 2000, with little evidence of the global financial crisis affecting demand. Consumption could rise to more than 132m bags in 2009 and 134m bags in 2010 if future demand growth matches the historic average.
In London, Liffe March robusta coffee futures dipped 1.3 per cent to $1,643 a tonne following a fall of 7.8 per cent in 2008.
Oil prices staged a rebound on hopes of further government action to address the credit crisis after Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, said more capital injections and guarantees for financial institutions could be needed.
Nymex February West Texas Intermediate recovered from early weakness to rise $0.19 to $37.78, trading between a low of $36.10 and a high of $39.50. The March WTI contract traded $1.25 higher at $44.90.
The large spread which has developed between the February and March contracts has been attributed partly to expectations that oil companies will deliver more of the supplies that have been stored in offshore tankers to the US mainland now that the tax year end has passed. Crude oil in storage at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, has reached record levels and traders expect further deliveries from offshore tankers to be evident in the US weekly inventories data, due out today.
ICE February Brent rose $1.92 to $44.83 a barrel after touching a high of $45.59.
The rise for crude prices came in spite of the US government warning that a steeper fall for global oil consumption was likely this year. The Energy Information Administration revised its 2009 global demand forecast to a fall of 810,000 barrels a day, compared with its earlier projection for a decline of 610,000 b/d.
The EIA said that total US consumption fell 5.7 per cent in 2008 and that a further decline of 2 per cent was expected this year, with only a modest rebound of 0.8 per cent likely in 2010.
Published: January 13 2009 12:11 | Last updated: January 13 2009 19:26
A substantial fall in Brazilian coffee production this year looks likely to drag the global coffee market into a supply deficit in 2009-10, according to the International Coffee Organisation which released its latest monthly report on Monday.
The ICO said Brazil’scoffee production, which follows a biennial cycle (high output one year followed by low the next), could fall from 46m 60kg bags in 2008-09 to between 36.9m and 38.8m bags this year, a drop of 16 to 20 per cent.
The ICO said the preliminary crop forecast for Brazil implied a shortfall of at least 5m bags for world supply in 2009-10 but cautioned that a more accurate picture would emerge once production estimates from other countries were published in the near future.
In New York, ICE March arabica coffee futures firmed 0.2 per cent at $1.1470 per pound following a drop of 17.7 per cent last year.
Global coffee consumption in calendar year 2008 is estimated at 128m bags, a rise of 2.4 per cent on the previous year and matching annual consumption growth since 2000, with little evidence of the global financial crisis affecting demand. Consumption could rise to more than 132m bags in 2009 and 134m bags in 2010 if future demand growth matches the historic average.
In London, Liffe March robusta coffee futures dipped 1.3 per cent to $1,643 a tonne following a fall of 7.8 per cent in 2008.
Oil prices staged a rebound on hopes of further government action to address the credit crisis after Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, said more capital injections and guarantees for financial institutions could be needed.
Nymex February West Texas Intermediate recovered from early weakness to rise $0.19 to $37.78, trading between a low of $36.10 and a high of $39.50. The March WTI contract traded $1.25 higher at $44.90.
The large spread which has developed between the February and March contracts has been attributed partly to expectations that oil companies will deliver more of the supplies that have been stored in offshore tankers to the US mainland now that the tax year end has passed. Crude oil in storage at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, has reached record levels and traders expect further deliveries from offshore tankers to be evident in the US weekly inventories data, due out today.
ICE February Brent rose $1.92 to $44.83 a barrel after touching a high of $45.59.
The rise for crude prices came in spite of the US government warning that a steeper fall for global oil consumption was likely this year. The Energy Information Administration revised its 2009 global demand forecast to a fall of 810,000 barrels a day, compared with its earlier projection for a decline of 610,000 b/d.
The EIA said that total US consumption fell 5.7 per cent in 2008 and that a further decline of 2 per cent was expected this year, with only a modest rebound of 0.8 per cent likely in 2010.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
this is why the shit will hit the fan over the next few months...no matter what anyone in govt tries to do about it! Since we import everything these days, we are in trouble!
Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks
Freight rates for containers shipped from Asia to Europe have fallen to zero for the first time since records began, underscoring the dramatic collapse in trade since the world economy buckled in October.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 5:42PM GMT 13 Jan 2009
The cost of shipping goods from Asia to Europe has tumbled
"They have already hit zero," said Charles de Trenck, a broker at Transport Trackers in Hong Kong. "We have seen trade activity fall off a cliff. Asia-Europe is an unmitigated disaster."
Shipping journal Lloyd's List said brokers in Singapore are now waiving fees for containers travelling from South China, charging only for the minimal "bunker" costs. Container fees from North Asia have dropped $200, taking them below operating cost.
Industry sources said they have never seen rates fall so low. "This is a whole new ball game," said one trader.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which measures freight rates for bulk commodities such as iron ore and grains crashed several months ago, falling 96pc. The BDI – though a useful early-warning index – is highly volatile and exaggerates apparent ups and downs in trade. However, the latest phase of the shipping crisis is different. It has spread to core trade of finished industrial goods, the lifeblood of the world economy.
Trade data from Asia's export tigers has been disastrous over recent weeks, reflecting the collapse in US, UK and European markets.
Korea's exports fell 30pc in January compared to a year earlier. Exports have slumped 42pc in Taiwan and 27pc in Japan, according to the most recent monthly data. Even China has now started to see an outright contraction in shipments, led by steel, electronics and textiles.
A report by ING yesterday said shipping activity at US ports has suddenly dived. Outbound traffic from Long Beach and Los Angeles, America's two top ports, has fallen by 18pc year-on-year, a far more serious decline than anything seen in recent recessions.
"This is no regular cycle slowdown, but a complete collapse in foreign demand," said Lindsay Coburn, ING's trade consultant.
Idle ships are now stretched in rows outside Singapore's harbour, creating an eerie silhouette like a vast naval fleet at anchor. Shipping experts note the number of vessels moving around seem unusually high in the water, indicating low cargoes.
It became difficult for the shippers to obtain routine letters of credit at the height of financial crisis over the autumn, causing goods to pile up at ports even though there was a willing buyer at the other end. Analysts say this problem has been resolved, but the shipping industry has since been swamped by the global trade contraction.
The World Bank caused shockwaves with a warning last month that global trade may decline this year for the first time since the Second World War. This appears increasingly certain with each new batch of data.
Mr de Trenck predicts Asian trade to the US will fall 7pc this year. To Europe he estimates a drop of 9pc – possibly 12pc. Trade flows grow 8pc in an average year.
He said it was "illogical" for shippers to offer zero rates, but they do whatever they can to survive in a highly cyclical market.
Offering slots for free is akin to an airline giving away spare seats for nothing in the hope of making something from meals and fees.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4...ade-sinks.html
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Shipping lines say credit woes compounded demand slowdown
Bloomberg
Page 19
2008-12-29 11:04 AM A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S, the world's largest shipper of containers, and Neptune Orient Lines Ltd., southeast Asia's biggest, said demand is weakening because banks don't want to finance trade during a recession.
Seaborne transportation of goods such as washing machines and other household appliances fell the most in at least 5 1/2 years in November, according to data published last week on the Web site of Neptune Orient Lines. Shipments dropped 12 percent to 169,700 boxes in the four weeks to Nov. 14, compared with a year earlier, it said.
"We have in some trades received feedback from customers and the market that they are having issues with letters of credit," Michel Deleuran, head of network and product at Copenhagen-based Maersk Line, said by phone today. The issue is exacerbating "a lack of demand in individual countries" as the global recession takes hold, he said.
World trade in commodities, from oil and coal to timber and grains, has already been hurt by a reduction in the sums banks are willing to advance to customers to ensure payments. Maersk spokesman Michael Storgaard said Oct. 15 that container shipments of consumer goods weren't affected at the time.
Reduced supply of trade finance has "been a factor" in Neptune Orient Lines reporting its largest year-on-year decline in shipments since May 2003, David Goodwin, vice president of NOL Group Corporate Affairs, said in an e-mailed statement Dec. 12. "The key driver behind lower demand for container shipping is the sharp reduction in consumer confidence and consumer spending globally," he said. The cost of shipping containers has declined "very dramatically" and at "unprecedented" speed, Deleuran said today. He declined to be more specific because shipping lines can breach competition rules by discussing what they earn.
http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news_...&lang=eng_news
Freight rates for containers shipped from Asia to Europe have fallen to zero for the first time since records began, underscoring the dramatic collapse in trade since the world economy buckled in October.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 5:42PM GMT 13 Jan 2009
The cost of shipping goods from Asia to Europe has tumbled"They have already hit zero," said Charles de Trenck, a broker at Transport Trackers in Hong Kong. "We have seen trade activity fall off a cliff. Asia-Europe is an unmitigated disaster."
Shipping journal Lloyd's List said brokers in Singapore are now waiving fees for containers travelling from South China, charging only for the minimal "bunker" costs. Container fees from North Asia have dropped $200, taking them below operating cost.
Industry sources said they have never seen rates fall so low. "This is a whole new ball game," said one trader.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which measures freight rates for bulk commodities such as iron ore and grains crashed several months ago, falling 96pc. The BDI – though a useful early-warning index – is highly volatile and exaggerates apparent ups and downs in trade. However, the latest phase of the shipping crisis is different. It has spread to core trade of finished industrial goods, the lifeblood of the world economy.
Trade data from Asia's export tigers has been disastrous over recent weeks, reflecting the collapse in US, UK and European markets.
Korea's exports fell 30pc in January compared to a year earlier. Exports have slumped 42pc in Taiwan and 27pc in Japan, according to the most recent monthly data. Even China has now started to see an outright contraction in shipments, led by steel, electronics and textiles.
A report by ING yesterday said shipping activity at US ports has suddenly dived. Outbound traffic from Long Beach and Los Angeles, America's two top ports, has fallen by 18pc year-on-year, a far more serious decline than anything seen in recent recessions.
"This is no regular cycle slowdown, but a complete collapse in foreign demand," said Lindsay Coburn, ING's trade consultant.
Idle ships are now stretched in rows outside Singapore's harbour, creating an eerie silhouette like a vast naval fleet at anchor. Shipping experts note the number of vessels moving around seem unusually high in the water, indicating low cargoes.
It became difficult for the shippers to obtain routine letters of credit at the height of financial crisis over the autumn, causing goods to pile up at ports even though there was a willing buyer at the other end. Analysts say this problem has been resolved, but the shipping industry has since been swamped by the global trade contraction.
The World Bank caused shockwaves with a warning last month that global trade may decline this year for the first time since the Second World War. This appears increasingly certain with each new batch of data.
Mr de Trenck predicts Asian trade to the US will fall 7pc this year. To Europe he estimates a drop of 9pc – possibly 12pc. Trade flows grow 8pc in an average year.
He said it was "illogical" for shippers to offer zero rates, but they do whatever they can to survive in a highly cyclical market.
Offering slots for free is akin to an airline giving away spare seats for nothing in the hope of making something from meals and fees.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4...ade-sinks.html
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Shipping lines say credit woes compounded demand slowdown
Bloomberg
Page 19
2008-12-29 11:04 AM A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S, the world's largest shipper of containers, and Neptune Orient Lines Ltd., southeast Asia's biggest, said demand is weakening because banks don't want to finance trade during a recession.
Seaborne transportation of goods such as washing machines and other household appliances fell the most in at least 5 1/2 years in November, according to data published last week on the Web site of Neptune Orient Lines. Shipments dropped 12 percent to 169,700 boxes in the four weeks to Nov. 14, compared with a year earlier, it said.
"We have in some trades received feedback from customers and the market that they are having issues with letters of credit," Michel Deleuran, head of network and product at Copenhagen-based Maersk Line, said by phone today. The issue is exacerbating "a lack of demand in individual countries" as the global recession takes hold, he said.
World trade in commodities, from oil and coal to timber and grains, has already been hurt by a reduction in the sums banks are willing to advance to customers to ensure payments. Maersk spokesman Michael Storgaard said Oct. 15 that container shipments of consumer goods weren't affected at the time.
Reduced supply of trade finance has "been a factor" in Neptune Orient Lines reporting its largest year-on-year decline in shipments since May 2003, David Goodwin, vice president of NOL Group Corporate Affairs, said in an e-mailed statement Dec. 12. "The key driver behind lower demand for container shipping is the sharp reduction in consumer confidence and consumer spending globally," he said. The cost of shipping containers has declined "very dramatically" and at "unprecedented" speed, Deleuran said today. He declined to be more specific because shipping lines can breach competition rules by discussing what they earn.
http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news_...&lang=eng_news
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Alcoa to lay off 13,500 workers, freeze salaries and cut spending by 50%
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Alcoa-cuts-job-output-cope/story.aspx?guid={F6DCE3C3-2CF8-46C9-BEF3-4B699EE9CA31}
By Matt Andrejczak
Last update: 4:21 p.m. EST Jan. 6, 2009
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Alcoa Inc. (AA): late Tuesday said it plans to cut 13% of its global workforce, sell four business units, cut output, freeze salaries and hiring efforts. The Pittsburgh-based aluminum giant said it is taking the steps to conserve cash in the current economic downturn. The meausures will result in a fourth-quarter charge of $900 million to $950 million after tax, or $1.13 to $1.19 a share. Alcoa, a Dow Jones Industrials Average component, reports earnings Jan. 12.
By Matt Andrejczak
Last update: 4:21 p.m. EST Jan. 6, 2009
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Alcoa Inc. (AA): late Tuesday said it plans to cut 13% of its global workforce, sell four business units, cut output, freeze salaries and hiring efforts. The Pittsburgh-based aluminum giant said it is taking the steps to conserve cash in the current economic downturn. The meausures will result in a fourth-quarter charge of $900 million to $950 million after tax, or $1.13 to $1.19 a share. Alcoa, a Dow Jones Industrials Average component, reports earnings Jan. 12.
Warning: More Doom Ahead
By Nouriel Roubini
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/c...?story_id=4591
Page 1 of 1
January/February 2009
“Because the United States is such a huge part of the global economy, there’s real reason to worry that an American financial virus could mark the beginning of a global economic contagion.” – Nouriel Roubini, March 2008
Last year’s worst-case scenarios came true. The global financial pandemic that I and others had warned about is now upon us. But we are still only in the early stages of this crisis. My predictions for the coming year, unfortunately, are even more dire: The bubbles, and there were many, have only begun to burst.
The prevailing conventional wisdom holds that prices of many risky financial assets have fallen so much that we are at the bottom. Although it’s true that these assets have fallen sharply from their peaks of late 2007, they will likely fall further still. In the next few months, the macroeconomic news in the United States and around the world will be much worse than most expect. Corporate earnings reports will shock any equity analysts who are still deluding themselves that the economic contraction will be mild and short.
Severe vulnerabilities remain in financial markets: a credit crunch that will get worse before it gets any better; deleveraging that continues as hedge funds and other leveraged players are forced to sell assets into illiquid and distressed markets, thus leading to cascading falls in asset prices, margin calls, and further deleveraging; other financial institutions going bust; a few emerging-market economies entering a full-blown financial crisis, and some at risk of defaulting on their sovereign debt.
Certainly, the United States will experience its worst recession in decades. The formerly mainstream notion that the U.S. contraction would be short and shallow—a V-shaped recession with a quick recovery like the ones in 1990–91 and 2001—is out the window. Instead, the U.S. contraction will be U-shaped: long, deep, and lasting about 24 months. It could end up being even longer, an L-shaped, multiyear stagnation, like the one Japan suffered in the 1990s.
As the U.S. economy shrinks, the entire global economy will go into recession. In Europe, Canada, Japan, and the other advanced economies, it will be severe. Nor will emerging-market economies—linked to the developed world by trade in goods, finance, and currency—escape real pain.
What constitutes a “recession” will depend on the country in question. For China, a hard landing would mean annual growth falls from 12 to 6 percent. China must grow by 10 percent or more each year to bring 12 to 15 million poor rural farmers into the modern world. For other emerging markets, such as Brazil or South Korea, growth below 3 percent would represent a hard landing. The most vulnerable countries, such as Ecuador, Hungary, Latvia, Pakistan, or Ukraine may experience an outright financial crisis and will require massive external financing to avoid a meltdown.
Click Here!
For the wealthiest countries, a debilitating combination of economic stagnation and deflation might happen as markets for goods go slack because aggregate demand falls. Given how sharply production capacity has risen due to overinvestment in China and other emerging markets, this drop in demand would likely lead to lower inflation. Meanwhile, job losses would mount and unemployment rates would rise, putting downward pressure on wages. Weakening commodity markets—where prices have already fallen sharply since their summer peak and will fall further in a global recession—would lead to still lower inflation. Indeed, by early 2009, inflation in the advanced economies could fall toward the 1 percent level, too close to deflation for comfort.
This scenario is dangerous for many reasons. A number of central banks will be close enough to setting interest rates of zero that their economies fall into a triple whammy: a liquidity trap, a deflation trap, and debt deflation. In a liquidity trap, the banks lose their ability to stimulate the economy because they cannot set nominal interest rates below zero. In a deflation trap, falling prices mean that real interest rates are relatively high, choking off consumption and investment. This leads to a vicious circle wherein incomes and jobs are falling, with demand dropping still further. Finally, in debt deflation, the real value of nominal debts rises as prices fall—bad news for countries such as the United States and Japan that have high ratios of debt to GDP.
As orthodox monetary tools become ineffective, policymakers will turn to unorthodox approaches. We’ll see traditional fiscal policy, in the form of tax cuts and spending increases, but also worldwide bailouts of lenders, investors, and financial institutions, as well as borrowers. Central banks will inject massive amounts of cash into financial systems to unclog the liquidity crunch. More radical actions, such as outright purchases of corporate and government bonds or subsidization of mortgage rates, might also be necessary to get credit markets functioning properly again.
This crisis is not merely the result of the U.S. housing bubble’s bursting or the collapse of the United States’ subprime mortgage sector. The credit excesses that created this disaster were global. There were many bubbles, and they extended beyond housing in many countries to commercial real estate mortgages and loans, to credit cards, auto loans, and student loans. There were bubbles for the securitized products that converted these loans and mortgages into complex, toxic, and destructive financial instruments. And there were still more bubbles for local government borrowing, leveraged buyouts, hedge funds, commercial and industrial loans, corporate bonds, commodities, and credit-default swaps—a dangerous unregulated market wherein up to $60 trillion of nominal protection was sold against an outstanding stock of corporate bonds of just $6 trillion.
Taken together, these amounted to the biggest asset and credit bubble in human history; as it goes bust, the overall credit losses could reach as high as $2 trillion. Unless governments move with more alacrity to recapitalize banks and other financial institutions, the credit crunch will become even more severe. Losses will mount faster than companies can replenish their balance sheets.
Thanks to the radical actions of the G-7 and others, the risk of a total systemic financial meltdown has been reduced. But unfortunately, the worst is not behind us. This will be a painful year. Only very aggressive, coordinated, and effective action by policymakers will ensure that 2010 will not be even worse than 2009 is likely to be.
Nouriel Roubini is professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business
By Nouriel Roubini
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/c...?story_id=4591
Page 1 of 1
January/February 2009
“Because the United States is such a huge part of the global economy, there’s real reason to worry that an American financial virus could mark the beginning of a global economic contagion.” – Nouriel Roubini, March 2008
Last year’s worst-case scenarios came true. The global financial pandemic that I and others had warned about is now upon us. But we are still only in the early stages of this crisis. My predictions for the coming year, unfortunately, are even more dire: The bubbles, and there were many, have only begun to burst.
The prevailing conventional wisdom holds that prices of many risky financial assets have fallen so much that we are at the bottom. Although it’s true that these assets have fallen sharply from their peaks of late 2007, they will likely fall further still. In the next few months, the macroeconomic news in the United States and around the world will be much worse than most expect. Corporate earnings reports will shock any equity analysts who are still deluding themselves that the economic contraction will be mild and short.
Severe vulnerabilities remain in financial markets: a credit crunch that will get worse before it gets any better; deleveraging that continues as hedge funds and other leveraged players are forced to sell assets into illiquid and distressed markets, thus leading to cascading falls in asset prices, margin calls, and further deleveraging; other financial institutions going bust; a few emerging-market economies entering a full-blown financial crisis, and some at risk of defaulting on their sovereign debt.
Certainly, the United States will experience its worst recession in decades. The formerly mainstream notion that the U.S. contraction would be short and shallow—a V-shaped recession with a quick recovery like the ones in 1990–91 and 2001—is out the window. Instead, the U.S. contraction will be U-shaped: long, deep, and lasting about 24 months. It could end up being even longer, an L-shaped, multiyear stagnation, like the one Japan suffered in the 1990s.
As the U.S. economy shrinks, the entire global economy will go into recession. In Europe, Canada, Japan, and the other advanced economies, it will be severe. Nor will emerging-market economies—linked to the developed world by trade in goods, finance, and currency—escape real pain.
What constitutes a “recession” will depend on the country in question. For China, a hard landing would mean annual growth falls from 12 to 6 percent. China must grow by 10 percent or more each year to bring 12 to 15 million poor rural farmers into the modern world. For other emerging markets, such as Brazil or South Korea, growth below 3 percent would represent a hard landing. The most vulnerable countries, such as Ecuador, Hungary, Latvia, Pakistan, or Ukraine may experience an outright financial crisis and will require massive external financing to avoid a meltdown.
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For the wealthiest countries, a debilitating combination of economic stagnation and deflation might happen as markets for goods go slack because aggregate demand falls. Given how sharply production capacity has risen due to overinvestment in China and other emerging markets, this drop in demand would likely lead to lower inflation. Meanwhile, job losses would mount and unemployment rates would rise, putting downward pressure on wages. Weakening commodity markets—where prices have already fallen sharply since their summer peak and will fall further in a global recession—would lead to still lower inflation. Indeed, by early 2009, inflation in the advanced economies could fall toward the 1 percent level, too close to deflation for comfort.
This scenario is dangerous for many reasons. A number of central banks will be close enough to setting interest rates of zero that their economies fall into a triple whammy: a liquidity trap, a deflation trap, and debt deflation. In a liquidity trap, the banks lose their ability to stimulate the economy because they cannot set nominal interest rates below zero. In a deflation trap, falling prices mean that real interest rates are relatively high, choking off consumption and investment. This leads to a vicious circle wherein incomes and jobs are falling, with demand dropping still further. Finally, in debt deflation, the real value of nominal debts rises as prices fall—bad news for countries such as the United States and Japan that have high ratios of debt to GDP.
As orthodox monetary tools become ineffective, policymakers will turn to unorthodox approaches. We’ll see traditional fiscal policy, in the form of tax cuts and spending increases, but also worldwide bailouts of lenders, investors, and financial institutions, as well as borrowers. Central banks will inject massive amounts of cash into financial systems to unclog the liquidity crunch. More radical actions, such as outright purchases of corporate and government bonds or subsidization of mortgage rates, might also be necessary to get credit markets functioning properly again.
This crisis is not merely the result of the U.S. housing bubble’s bursting or the collapse of the United States’ subprime mortgage sector. The credit excesses that created this disaster were global. There were many bubbles, and they extended beyond housing in many countries to commercial real estate mortgages and loans, to credit cards, auto loans, and student loans. There were bubbles for the securitized products that converted these loans and mortgages into complex, toxic, and destructive financial instruments. And there were still more bubbles for local government borrowing, leveraged buyouts, hedge funds, commercial and industrial loans, corporate bonds, commodities, and credit-default swaps—a dangerous unregulated market wherein up to $60 trillion of nominal protection was sold against an outstanding stock of corporate bonds of just $6 trillion.
Taken together, these amounted to the biggest asset and credit bubble in human history; as it goes bust, the overall credit losses could reach as high as $2 trillion. Unless governments move with more alacrity to recapitalize banks and other financial institutions, the credit crunch will become even more severe. Losses will mount faster than companies can replenish their balance sheets.
Thanks to the radical actions of the G-7 and others, the risk of a total systemic financial meltdown has been reduced. But unfortunately, the worst is not behind us. This will be a painful year. Only very aggressive, coordinated, and effective action by policymakers will ensure that 2010 will not be even worse than 2009 is likely to be.
Nouriel Roubini is professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business
Saturday, January 03, 2009
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
This is work!
The rebuilding of our darkroom continues, and when its all said and done we will have "filtered" temp controlled running water thru three separate faucets in the sink...and a chiller for summertime...for now though our enlargers are takin a dust beatin...which will be easily cleaned up over the weekend we hope...
the backside of our stainless sink is plumbed out already and if all goes well tomorrow we will get under the house and run plumbing to the room - then all we will have to do is bring in the sink, tie it all in, and clean up the place and waalaa - we will have capability of processing and printing any format from35mm to 8x10 negs in b/w...with music and beer of course!...LOL
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Anyone looking for a cheap, practical way to mount a grid to your speedlights need look no further than here:
http://davidtejada.blogspot.com/
http://davidtejada.blogspot.com/
Friday, December 26, 2008
Christmas is over now...time to get back to some serious doom and gloom!
~20% decline in the last week according to some retail surveys?
Well, yes.
Let's look at reality here - how much crap do you really need?
How many iPODs, how many DVD players, how many bigscreen TVs?
Did you notice the attempted "upselling" this year with the BluRay discs? Titles that had been out for months - in some cases more than a year - being peddled for $30/disc - or more?
What's that about? Oh sure, its higher resolution (quite a bit higher, in fact) but the actual disk itself isn't that much more expensive to press than a regular DVD - and certainly not $20 more, when the same title is available in the DVD rack as an "old release" for $10!
By the way, here's a secret you won't be told by many people - if you have a HD TV (e.g. virtually anything made in the last five or more years) you can buy an "upconverting" DVD player, or get a BluRay player and use your conventional DVD media. The player will "upconvert" the media to your TV's native resolution.
Can you tell the difference? Yes. I can. Easily, on my 60" DLP set in the family room. On my 36" in my bedroom? Not really - unless I look really, really closely.
But will I pay fifty percent more for a "new release", or three times as much for an older release, to have that movie on BluRay as opposed to DVD?
Well, having bought a couple of BluRay discs this season (to go with the Sony 550 player - a $400 unit that some guy was unloading 1500 of - overstocks I'm sure - on eBAY, for $212) I can tell you that on my 60" widescreen the difference between BluRay and DVD is easily perceptible but there's no possible way to justify a price three times as high.
When DVDs first came out I had been a 12" LaserDisc maven for a very long time and had well north of 200 titles. DVDs were a quantum leap forward in both video and audio quality - while there were a few LaserDiscs that had discrete surround sound, they were the exception rather than the rule, and LaserDisc's video was in fact an analog signal - so it had "dot crawl" and all the other sins of an analog signal, even though it was damn good compared to a VCR.
The compelling difference between DVD and BluRay simply isn't there.
This, unfortunately for retailers, is pretty much the entirety of the market - across segments.
Can you name one product that is a "game changer" - that provides a quantum leap forward, and thus is truly a "must have"?
I can't.
That's a problem, when you get down to it; all retailers are really catering to is "the quantum of more".
Now look around your house. Look at all the junk you have in your home. Quantify "junk" as anything that doesn't provide you with a place to sit (or lay down), a way to keep you warm, a means to prepare (or consume) food or drink and a way to keep your premises livable (you gotta wash your clothes somehow, right?)
All the trinkets, the 47 computers, the three iPODs and the cell phones. The "new car" you bought over the last few years, for what - the "new car" smell? Does a used car - or even a clunker - get you to work?
Think about it - how much less would an inexpensive used car have cost you? Liability insurance only as opposed to "full coverage", because if you wreck it you could replace it for a couple of grand in cash - no need for collision coverage, and if the transmission falls out you could junk and replace it for less than the cost of the repair! In a couple of years you're way ahead, and even more so if you make a habit of smashing cars (since insurance gets verrry expensive for collision coverage if you wreck frequently!)
We as a nation have gotten used to deciding we want something and therefore we will have it, because the credit card hasn't been declined (yet). When it was, we then went to the bank and pulled out our home equity, paid off the card - and charged it up again.
The entirety of our media has become focused on exactly one thing - stoking that "need for more", with Americans being literally told they're poor, destitute, and deserving of that handbag from Gucci and the brand new Lexus you must have in your driveway.
It's all a scam.
I don't know about you, but I'm pretty much at saturation when it comes to "things". I have a house, a grill, a fridge, car, dishwasher, laundry equipment and as many computers and TVs as I can reasonably use.
What's left? Nothing, really.
The "culture of more" is how we got into this mess - the demand for "more" without first earning the money to buy it.
As this continued onward beyond reasonable limits those who "must have more" turned to stealing. CDOs full of garbage "rated AAA" by companies who were effectively bribed (and used what they now acknowlege were computer models that assumed prices would never go down), peddled by people who knew their products were worthless (proved by the fact that in some cases they were shorting what they were selling!) Union "bosses" who have been documented billing thousands of hours of overtime for work not performed.
Our entire economy has turned into a culture of scamming, fraud, and BS. This morning CNBC has "news person" after news person nearly crying for people to go back to the mall and spend more money they don't have - on useless crap.
The adjustment to a "culture of what you need" is going to be jarring for many, even catastrophic for some, who simply must walk around with their noses in the air, spending at rates that are vastly beyond their ability to earn. Indeed, in places like Manhatten where the "culture of more" has turned into fraud and theft extraordinaire, driving anyone who doesn't make $500,000 a year or more out as "too poor" to afford to live there this adjustment may even come (God willing) in the form of some long days in the graybar motel with a cellmate named "Bubba".
But perhaps - just perhaps - we will rediscover the fact that a few simple things - a pumpkin pie baked from scratch in the oven (yes, including the crust), a bird or ham in the oven and hugs from those you love are worth a whole lot more than the newest plastic piece of crap from China.
Think about it - then tell the merchants of theft, fraud, avarice and greed that you simply won't play any more.
Tell the Paulsons of the world, who are inextricably tied to the financial scams of the last decade, to pound sand in the most effective way possible.
Spend your post-Christmas time giving your kids, spouse and/or SO a bunch of hugs, instead of at the local mall blowing yet more money you don't have.
You'll get more from it.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Its Second Saturday here in McKinney today and there were some interesting sights to see...
Brian Magnuson was displaying black and whites prints from the series "Cowboys of the Grand Canyon" at Laura Moore Fine Art Studios, and Guy Giersch and Pernie Fallon had some of their excellent work on display at Cynthia Elliot's Boutique...
Christmas lights are up and its worth the walk around the square just to take it all in...
Brian Magnuson was displaying black and whites prints from the series "Cowboys of the Grand Canyon" at Laura Moore Fine Art Studios, and Guy Giersch and Pernie Fallon had some of their excellent work on display at Cynthia Elliot's Boutique...
Christmas lights are up and its worth the walk around the square just to take it all in...
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
AP
Office Depot will close 112 stores
Wednesday December 10, 9:27 am ET
Office Depot to close 112 underperforming stores in 3 months in cost-saving move BOCA RATON, Fla. (AP) -- Office Depot Inc. will close about 9 percent of its North American stores over the next three months and open fewer locations next year in an effort to cut costs, the office supply chain said Wednesday.
Office Depot will close 112 stores
Wednesday December 10, 9:27 am ET
The plan to shutter 112 stores will reduce the chain's base to 1,163. It plans to close 45 stores in the Central U.S., 40 in the Northeast and Canada, 19 in the West and eight in the South.
Office Depot also will close six of its 33 North American distribution facilities.
Meanwhile, the Delray Beach, Fla.-based company said it plans to shut another 14 stores next year while opening just 20 new sites, half of what it planned.
Office Depot will take related charges of $270 million to $300 million in 2008 and 2009.
The struggling retailer considered store closings in October, when it reported a third-quarter loss due to slumping sales as consumers and small businesses cut back spending.
Office Depot shares, which have tumbled more than 82 percent since the beginning of the year, were unchanged in pre-market trading Wednesday at $2.43.
Monday, December 08, 2008
http://www.kunstler.com/
People Get Ready
By James Howard Kunstler
In the twilight of the Bush days, in the twilight of the twilight season, a consensus has formed that we are headed into a long, dark passage leading we know not where. Even CNBC's Lawrence Kudlow has been reduced to searching for stray "mustard seeds" of hope on hands and knees in a bleak and tortured financial landscape. Half the enterprises in the land are lined up for some kind of relief bailout and a blizzard of pink slips has cut economic visibility to zero.
The broad American public voted for "change" but they thought that meant a "changing of the guard." Out with the feckless Bush; in with the charismatic Obama... and may this American life now continue just as it ever was. The change actually coming will be much more than they bargained for, namely our transition from a wealthy society to a hardship society. The sharp break is a product of our years-long failure to reckon with the energy realities of our time. We're still confused about that, but it's hard, otherwise, to ignore the massive disappearance of capital, asset values, livelihoods, domiciles, comforts, and necessities.
The price of oil is suddenly down to an astounding $40-odd per barrel. Those of us studying the Peak Oil story have said that the "bumpy plateau" years of peak production would be expressed in tremendous price volatility, and for exactly the reasons now evident -- that the high-price phase would mangle advanced economies, that they would fall back in paralysis, then respond anew to oil price collapses by straggling up again, only to be crushed again when a resumption in demand for oil drove the price back up.
What was not so generally anticipated was the wholesale destruction of global finance in the first phase of this period. This has now occurred so comprehensively that we know the banking business will never be the same again. It has also accelerated other plot-lines in the story. One affects the global oil industry itself: a lack of capital to go forward with the new oil projects that were designed to mitigate the present depletions in old oil fields. The result of this quandary is as likely to be oil shortages in 2009 as much as an extremely sharp snap-back in oil prices. The oil markets themselves are changing in the face of financial disruption. Between pirates lurking off the Horn of Africa, and a shortage in letters-of-credit that enable the shipping of anything for delivery between nations, the allocation system is impaired. This affects poorer nations the most, and when they don't get their oil shipments, conditions in these nations get worse. People lose incomes. Ethnic strife ramps up. All this will make it harder to move oil from the places where it is produced to the importing countries.
So much artificially-generated pixel "money" is being pumped into the system now that it will eventually overtake the quantity of capital currently vanishing in the form of exposed securities swindles, unwinding bad debt, and imploded worthless counter-party contracts. The pixel money will express itself as super or hyper inflation, lagging from 6 to 18 months from the time it was actually introduced in the form of bailouts. For the moment, money is moving into the presumed safety of US Treasury paper. Personally, the safety of this is not something I would presume. But in the current deflationary stage its hard to find any other place to park cash, and when asset values are crashing everywhere, cash is king. Gold is physically unavailable in the form that non-millionaires usually buy it in, ounce and half-ounce coins.
President-elect Obama has announced his intention to kick off a massive "stimulation" program when he hits the White House "running" in January. Early indications are that it will be directed at things like highway repair. If so, we will be investing long-term in infrastructure that we probably won't be using the same way in ten years. But I doubt there is any way around it. The American public can't conceive of living any other way except in a car-centered society. Anyway, some parts of our highway-bridge-and-tunnel system are already so decrepit that they pose a menace right now, and the clamor to direct "stimulation" there is already very strong -- backed by all the fraternities of engineers.
Stimulus aimed at perpetuating mass motoring will be a tragic waste of our dwindling resources. We'd be better off aiming it at fixing the railroads (especially electrifying them), refitting our harbors with piers and warehouses in preparation to move more stuff by boats, and in repairing the electric grid. Unfortunately, our tendency will be to try to rescue the totemic touchstones of everyday life, things familiar and comfortable, regardless of whether they have a future or not.
The ominous forces gathering out there will defeat these efforts and everyday life will reorganize itself some other way consistent with the single greatest trend: the force of contraction. Every sign we see is pointing in that direction, from the inability of the earth's ecology to support more human beings, to the dwindling of mineral and energy resources, to the destruction of farmland, to mischief in the climate. We just don't know how badly things will fall apart in the meantime, or how kind (or cruelly) people will act in the process.
Mr. Obama would be most successful if he could persuade the public how much more severe the required changes are than they currently realize, and inspire them to get with program of retrofitting American life to comply with these realities.
Saturday, December 06, 2008
Chestnut Square Historic Village Presents:
35th Annual
When: Saturday, December 6 - Sunday, December 7, 2008 at 10 a.m. - 5 p.m.
Where:
The first weekend of December has been The Heritage Guild Holiday Tour of Homes since 1973! The tradition of openning historic homes for a public tour began in 1973 when our founders first opened their homes to raise money to purchase the Dulaney House and cottage and the grounds that eventually became
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