Looks like we will again dodge another bullet as the current track takes Felix into Central America and falling apart rapidly - currently going thru eye wall replacement so more info later on...still a Cat 4 hurricane though...

Felix is a Cat 5 Hurricane!

Satellite images depicted some warming of the cloud
tops which could be indicative of slight weakening.
A NOAA reconnaissance plane measured 162 kt winds
around 11z which would still support 145 kt at the surface.
However subsequent to that observation the central
pressure has risen a bit and the eye is not as well defined on
visual imagery.  So the current intensity is adjusted downward
slightly...to 140 kt.  Fluctuations in strength due to inner
core processes are typical in intense hurricanes.  There has
not been  much evidence of concentric eyewalls or an eyewall
replacement thus far but such an event could occur...and it
would have an influence on the intensity of Felix.  However
these eyewall cycles are difficult to time or to predict.
The large scale environment... in terms of wind shear and
oceanic heat content...should remain conducive to the
maintenance of Cat 4/5 intensity until interaction with land.
The forecast intensity at 36 hours and beyond is highly
uncertain because it depends on the track of the center with
respect to the land mass of Central America and Mexico.
Clearly if Felix moves more to the right of our forecast it
will remain stronger and if it moves to the left of the NHC
track it would be much weaker.  Indeed...if the cyclone fails
to emerge over the Bay of Campeche...it could dissipate before
the end of the forecas period.
Latest fixes show that the fast westward motion...280/18...
continues.  The NHC track forecast and synoptic reasoning
are basically unchanged.  Global model forecast fields
maintain sufficient mid-tropospheric ridging to the
north of Felix so that...if these forecasts verify...the
tropical cyclone will be unable to gain much latitude
over the next few days.  The official  track forecast
is similar to the previous one and roughly in the
middle of the guidance envelope.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of northeastern
Nicaragua.
Data shows that the central pressure has come up a bit

Felix is ramping up pretty quick and his direction is more WNW now...We now have a definite eye...on another note Invest 98 is right behind him and looking to maybe go a little to the north of Felix...maybe smack the Antilles a little harder...only time will tell though..

Hurricane Felix is kickin ass and takin names!

Felix has rapidly strengthened overnight.  An Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft measured maximum flight-level
winds of 93kt and a central pressure of 984 mb during the
last eye penetration at about 0638z.  In addition...an
eyewall dropsonde measured surface winds of 85 kt derived
from the mean wind in the lower layer of the sounding.
Based on these data the advisory intensity is set to 85 kt.
While the eye has not yet become discernible in
conventional GOES infrared imagery...it is clearly evident
in radar imagery from Curacao and in passive microwave
imagery from a trmm overpass at 0619z.
Felix continues on a path just north of due west or
275/16...with steering provided by a strong deep-layer
ridge over the western Atlantic.  This ridge is forecast
by the models to build westward...preventing Felix from
gaining any significant latitude during the next few days.
The track guidance is in good agreement on a continuation
of the current motion for the next 48-72 hours.
Even the NOGAPS...an earlier northern outlier...has shifted
south and back into the rest of the guidance envelope.
Beyond 72 hours...the models take various paths across Central
America...with the most southern solution provided by the GFDL.
The new official forecast is adjusted just slightly to the
south...mostly to account for the initial motion. The forecast
at 4-5 days is rather uncertain and depends on just how much
ridging is present over the Gulf of Mexico at that time.
All factors point to continued intensification...and
the new official forecast is adjusted upward mainly to
reflect the overnight strengthening just observed...and
so is higher than most of the objective guidance.  Felix
appears on its way to becoming a major hurricane over the
Caribbean...but how much land it traverses beyond 48 hours
makes the long-range intensity forecast very uncertain.


 

TD6 has rapidly become Tropical Storm Felix...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...FELIX STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 8 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT
AND THE GRENADINES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...CURACAO AND FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRENADA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE FELIX LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75
KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 46 MPH WAS
RECENTLY REPORTED IN BARBADOS AND A WIND GUST OF 44 MPH WAS
OBSERVED IN ST. VINCENT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
7 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...62.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

We had a full Lunar Eclipse that was visible last night in the area...thought it was going to be marred by cloud cover but I was up about 4:30AM and caught this small glimpse of it as it was coming out of fullness into the other side...not the best of pics, but it will have to do for today...lol...

Burning Man started on Monday... as luck would have it there was an accident and the "man" burned up some a little early...makes you wonder since this happened on the night of a full lunar eclipse...Hmmmm




Burning Man is an annual experiment in temporary community dedicated to radical self-expression and radical self-reliance held on the playa in the Black Rock Desert, 120 miles north of Reno, Nevada. The towns of Empire and Gerlach serve as guardians of the desert region. Burning Man is an experiment in temporary community. Relationships are created, neighbors meet one another, and our collective survival is challenged. This is not a spectator event.

This is something I have always wanted to do...maybe next year...

What we gots here Pilgrim is a Republican administration that spends money faster than any Democritter could ever conceive of...Sheesh!



Fed back in the market 3 times today!!!

---

Fed injects 17.25 billion dollars into market

Aug 23 10:20 AM US/Eastern


The US Federal Reserve injected 17.25 billion dollars into the financial system in three actions Thursday, the latest in a series of moves designed to ease a credit squeeze in global markets.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which handles the overnight repurchase agreements for the Fed, announced the actions on its website.

A first injection of seven billion dollars at 8:30 am (1230 GMT) was followed by another of the same amount at 9:40 am and a third of 3.25 billion at 9:55 am.

The latest injections brought the total to 120.5 billion dollars added to money markets in repurchase agreements in the past two weeks.

Central banks began a series of major cash infusions on August 9 to ease tightening credit due to a crisis in the US high-risk subprime mortgage sector.

The US central bank on Friday unexpectedly slashed its discount rate to commercial banks to 5.75 percent from 6.25 percent to ease lending between banks.



http://www.breitbart.com/print.php?i...show_article=1

Not much newsy news today so I will just say that Ashley came by the "Gulch" the other day for a few hours and we had some fun takin pics!

Hurricane Dean, now a Cat 4 hurricane, is scheduled to go to Cat 5 status by sometime this afternoon...and should be in the GOM by Monday at the latest...in the meantime Jamaica and the Caymans are dead in its path. Its still unclear whether or not he will slide north or stay on a WNW course after he goes over the Yucatan - but models are in agreement that he will make landfall as a Cat 3 or higher either somewhere in south Texas or over towards Houston area...

Good Afternoon...

TD4 is now Tropical Storm Dean:




The tracking models today put it a little south of yesterday but not by much...



The disturbance in the GOM is still there as well...

Good Morning Sports Fans!

Hurricane season is about to get under way in earnest and if you are properly prepped out for this I would suggest you get started...

This morning we have two areas of concern, on in the eastern Atlantic called Tropical Depression 4, likely to be a hurricane by Thursday; and we also have a little disturbance in the GOM currently referred to as Invest 91L...





Tropical Depression 4




More information as it becomes known...

McKinney, Texas – August 8, 2007

MeSo Wine Lounge Opens in the Old Collin County Prison

Carrie Garner’s Galleria d’Arte is proud to announce the opening of the MeSo Wine Lounge, located on the first floor of the old Collin County prison, at 115 S. Kentucky Street in downtown McKinney.

Specializing in boutique wines and premium beers, MeSo is certain to become a favorite downtown destination. The lounge offers a daily selection of cheeses and antipastos along with special creations by chef Mike Cate.

Using only the highest quality and freshest ingredients, in combination with the newest culinary techniques, you are sure to find just the right pairings of wine, cheese and Cate’s personal creations to suit your palate.

Biscotti are a staple at MeSo – be sure to try their newest flavor-“Hawaii Five-Oh” which features white chocolate chips and coconut. Served with a side of bleu cheese, biscotti can be enjoyed with a great glass of red wine, port, or an after dinner drink.

MeSo’s comfortable and hip atmosphere is the perfect compliment to the three art galleries of the old Collin County prison. Carrie Garner’s Galleria d’Arte, Studio Duende, and Aristeia Gallery all feature works of art by local and regional artists.

For further information, contact Carrie Garner’s Galleria d’Arte / MeSo Wine Lounge at 469-742-9509 or visit us online at www.carriegarner.com.

MeSo Wine Lounge is opened Tuesday and Wednesday, 11am -5pm;
Thursday-Saturday, 11am-9pm.

The five day forecast for the area says nothing under 100...which of course means that with the heat index it will be like "Hell's Half Acre" here in the Big D...so drink lots of fluids, and stay in the shade when possible...like these folks..

Art Exhibit – “Mother and Child Reunion” at Carrie Garner’s Galleria d’Arte August 11, 2007

You will journey back into time-honored elegance and will live vicariously as a lord or lady of the Renaissance when you experience the creations of Karen Hall-Nitz. The magnificence of the old world masters is honored as Carrie Garner’s Galleria d’ Arte welcomes back Karen Hall-Nitz at an artist’s reception beginning at 7pm to 10pm on Saturday, August 11, 2007 at Carrie Garner’s Galleria d’Arte, located in the old Collin County Prison at 115 S. Kentucky Street in downtown McKinney.

Drawing on inspiration from travels to Europe, with a concentrated focus on Italy, the artist uses various imaginative techniques to create her exquisite works of art. Whether a tapestry or a painting on canvas, Hall-Nitz’s masterpieces are heavily textured and layered with rich, jewel-tone colors in oil and acrylic paints. Favorite subjects for Hall-Nitz include angels, cathedrals, and period-style portraits as she pays homage to the classic masters of the time.

In “Mother and Child Reunion” the viewer can almost hear the harps and feel the cool breezes of heaven as a mother and her angelic-like infant gaze lovingly downward to protect and guide a young shepherd boy alone in the fields. The jeweled-neck and styled hair of the young lady in “Old World Beauty” clearly demonstrates the sophistication and privilege belonging to an aristocracy gone by.

A commercially successful artist for over 15 years, Karen Hall-Nitz and her husband and partner, Roger Nitz, are owners of K&R Artworks. They specialize in creating dynamic visual and dramatic environments for residential and commercial clients. K&R Artworks has received awards and acknowledgments including 2006 Parade of Homes Best Craftsmanship, 2005 Best of Show and were featured artists at the 2007 Parade of Homes in Frisco. They are generous contributors of their work to the various charity events sponsored by the Love Life Foundation, supporting at-risk and abused children of Collin County. Gallery owner, Carrie Cameron Garner, is one of the founders of the Love Life Foundation (www.lovelifefoundation.com).

Recovering from a very recent stroke, Karen’s love of art and belief in her work has made her more determined than ever to move forward with this event. The exhibit will be a full and splendid celebration of her work, with several new, breathless pieces along with her repertoire of favorites. “This exhibit is deeply personal and means so much to me,” says Hall-Nitz.

Please join our celebration of community and the arts and plan to spend an evening in downtown McKinney. Live entertainment by The Quinten Hope Trio, wine and finger foods await gallery guests. Galleria d’Arte is very pleased to announce the much anticipated opening of the MeSo Wine lounge, located on the first floor of the prison. Specializing in boutique wines and premium beers, MeSo is the perfect accompaniment to an evening celebrating the visual arts.

The old prison is also home to Studio Duende and Aristeia Gallery, on the second and third floors of the prison. Continuing to embrace local and regional artists, these two new art galleries feature McKinney residents' paintings, jewelry, and, sculpture.

Co-sponsors of the evening are A Twist of Lime, Alternative Furnishings, BLING!, Cadillac Pizza Pub, Market Square Antiques, Market Street, MeSo Wine Lounge, and Poppy’s Garden Café.

Good Morning!

Its the 1st of August and just like clockwork we have a new invest nearing the Carribean...Invest 99l...just for the record "hurricane" season does not really kick into high gear till about mid-month...none the less it bears watching...

KATHY KROMER,’S ART FEATURED AT ARISTEIA GALLERY

McKinney, TX – Aristeia Gallery will host a reception on August 11 from 7 – 10 PM, for Kathy Kromer, the gallery’s featured artist for August. Ms. Kromer’s work will be on display through the end of August.

Ms. Kromer is a Dallas area artist whose work in acrylic is known for her bold use of intense color and original composition. Painting to music, the artist states that “the faster the tempo, the faster the brush moves.” Color merges on her canvas and melts into other colors, creating art that is audacious, confident and eye catching.

Ms. Kromer credits her love of painting to her grandmother, who was an artist, and although Kathy painted for several years, the realization that she was an artist came late to her. Kathy believes that some artists are “born knowing art is the driving force in their lives while others have to enter art through different doors.” Her doors were perseverance and practice and she states that she “continues to walk through those doors.”

To the admirer, her art may be reminiscent of that of Matisse, Van Gogh, Picasso and Modigliani, in a style she developed by studying these masters and through continued experimentation of expressing her passion. Kathy states that most of her inspiration for her paintings comes from her family, friends and relationships.

Aristeia Gallery owned by a group of local artists; Sandy Bauder, Ann Frazier, Vicky Saylor, Lisa Temple and Tina Wantland, and is located on the third floor of the historic Collin County Prison building. Each of these artists work is regularly on display in the gallery. The gallery also features original, free form metal sculptures by resident artist, Eric Gioia.

The Prison is also home Carrie Garner’s first floor, Galleria d’ Arte and Pernie Fallon & Guy Giersch’s, Studio Duende on the second floor. Each of the galleries feature a wide assortment of original art in a variety of media, including handmade jewelry, pottery and ceramics, by local and regional artists. The Prison is open to the public, Tuesday – Friday 11 AM – 5 PM and Saturdays, 10 AM – 5 PM. On the second Saturday of each month, the galleries close at 5 PM and reopen at 7 PM – 10 PM.

Monday Movie Night @ Red Rocks just outside of Denver...a great way to spend time...such a great place!

McKinney, Texas – June 28, 2007

Art Exhibit – “A Modern Twist” at Carrie Garner’s
Galleria d’Arte July 14, 2007

Local Adman Leverages Skills in Abstract Art

Recently returning from an art fellowship in Shanghai, China’s art district,

Carrie Garner’s Galleria d’Arte welcomes George Lynch in his first McKinney art exhibit in the gallery’s new home at the old Collin County prison. Lynch’s paintings will be debuted in “A Modern Twist” as the gallery hosts a reception on Saturday, July 14, 2007 from 7pm to 10pm.

Lynch’s wildly expressive art centers on conveying contemporary Christian themes. An experienced advertising executive, Lynch leverages his professional skills in combing words and visuals to communicate. Drawing from the word pictures he sees in Scripture or hymns, Lynch provides modern visual cues for the viewer’s mind. His approach to religious subjects purposely avoids iconic imagery, and his juxtaposition of modern art to ancient religion resonates vociferously in each of Lynch’s paintings. “I like to provoke a conversation with art. Just a few words written on a canvas can link the spiritual significance to the modern art,” says the artist.

Using acrylics, China markers, and emulsion on canvas, Lynch’s paintings naturally lead the viewer down introspective pathways. Whether soft, vibrant, or rich colors, Lynch’s compositions provide a feeling of peacefulness while simultaneously stimulating your senses. “I like abstract art that tells a story, “says Lynch. “You won’t find anything ‘Untitled’ in my work.”

The titles of Lynch’s paintings themselves tell a story. ‘The Boundary Lines Have Fallen For Me In Peaceful Places’; ‘Pour on Me’; ‘From Strength to Strength’; and ‘Bind My Wand’ring Heart’ are but a few paintings that will be on exhibit at Carrie Garner’s Galleria d’Arte. For further information about George Lynch, please consult his website at www.glynch.com

You are invited to join the celebration of community and the arts so plan to spend an evening in downtown McKinney. Live entertainment by Neighbors Band, wine, and finger-foods await gallery guests.

Co-sponsors of the evening are A Twist of Lime, Alternative Furnishings, BLING!, Cadillac Pizza Pub, Market Square Antiques, Market Street, MeSo Wine Lounge, and Poppy’s Garden Café.

For those who may have been wondering why there have been no post recently I was in Denver...

To know Bob was to love Bob, but more importantly to know him was to respect him – he was “old school” – and felt that a man was only as good as his word – and he lived his life accordingly – he lived his life on his own terms and according to his beliefs and he stood his ground and fought the good fight. At the end of the day, in the final hour, at the final breath it would not surprise me to see a big smile come over his face as he whispers “Its been a hell of a ride!”…



Rest in Peace Jr…we will miss you!