Hurricane Felix is kickin ass and takin names!

Felix has rapidly strengthened overnight.  An Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft measured maximum flight-level
winds of 93kt and a central pressure of 984 mb during the
last eye penetration at about 0638z.  In addition...an
eyewall dropsonde measured surface winds of 85 kt derived
from the mean wind in the lower layer of the sounding.
Based on these data the advisory intensity is set to 85 kt.
While the eye has not yet become discernible in
conventional GOES infrared imagery...it is clearly evident
in radar imagery from Curacao and in passive microwave
imagery from a trmm overpass at 0619z.
Felix continues on a path just north of due west or
275/16...with steering provided by a strong deep-layer
ridge over the western Atlantic.  This ridge is forecast
by the models to build westward...preventing Felix from
gaining any significant latitude during the next few days.
The track guidance is in good agreement on a continuation
of the current motion for the next 48-72 hours.
Even the NOGAPS...an earlier northern outlier...has shifted
south and back into the rest of the guidance envelope.
Beyond 72 hours...the models take various paths across Central
America...with the most southern solution provided by the GFDL.
The new official forecast is adjusted just slightly to the
south...mostly to account for the initial motion. The forecast
at 4-5 days is rather uncertain and depends on just how much
ridging is present over the Gulf of Mexico at that time.
All factors point to continued intensification...and
the new official forecast is adjusted upward mainly to
reflect the overnight strengthening just observed...and
so is higher than most of the objective guidance.  Felix
appears on its way to becoming a major hurricane over the
Caribbean...but how much land it traverses beyond 48 hours
makes the long-range intensity forecast very uncertain.