Felix is a Cat 5 Hurricane!

Satellite images depicted some warming of the cloud
tops which could be indicative of slight weakening.
A NOAA reconnaissance plane measured 162 kt winds
around 11z which would still support 145 kt at the surface.
However subsequent to that observation the central
pressure has risen a bit and the eye is not as well defined on
visual imagery.  So the current intensity is adjusted downward
slightly...to 140 kt.  Fluctuations in strength due to inner
core processes are typical in intense hurricanes.  There has
not been  much evidence of concentric eyewalls or an eyewall
replacement thus far but such an event could occur...and it
would have an influence on the intensity of Felix.  However
these eyewall cycles are difficult to time or to predict.
The large scale environment... in terms of wind shear and
oceanic heat content...should remain conducive to the
maintenance of Cat 4/5 intensity until interaction with land.
The forecast intensity at 36 hours and beyond is highly
uncertain because it depends on the track of the center with
respect to the land mass of Central America and Mexico.
Clearly if Felix moves more to the right of our forecast it
will remain stronger and if it moves to the left of the NHC
track it would be much weaker.  Indeed...if the cyclone fails
to emerge over the Bay of Campeche...it could dissipate before
the end of the forecas period.
Latest fixes show that the fast westward motion...280/18...
continues.  The NHC track forecast and synoptic reasoning
are basically unchanged.  Global model forecast fields
maintain sufficient mid-tropospheric ridging to the
north of Felix so that...if these forecasts verify...the
tropical cyclone will be unable to gain much latitude
over the next few days.  The official  track forecast
is similar to the previous one and roughly in the
middle of the guidance envelope.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of northeastern
Nicaragua.
Data shows that the central pressure has come up a bit