TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR MERIDA. THE LOW IS BEING INVESTIGATED THIS EVENING BY TWO NOAA AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND THE SYSTEM. DATA FROM THIS MISSION INDICATES ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART