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INVEST 95L FORMS in Gulf of Mexico: By THE DEEP HORIZON AREA!

ETA: Now that Alex has dissipated over inland Mexico, we need to quickly shift our attention to the northern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico where development is possible this weekend. The reason behind this potential development is a stalled frontal system that is positioned across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Even though low pressure is developing in the extreme northeast Gulf of Mexico just south of the Florida Panhandle, wind shear values of 30+knots will prevent tropical development for the time being.

With that said, pretty much all of the forecast guidance are forecasting some intensification of this low pressure system throughout Saturday and through Sunday. This low pressure system is ultimately forecast to come ashore in southeastern Louisiana during Monday. Looking at the overall forecast environmental conditions this weekend, it looks only marginally favorable, at best, for development, however, with sea surface temperatures being so hot in this area, this system will have to be closely watched for tropical cyclone development as it drifts westward close to the northern Gulf coast this weekend.

So, bottom line is that while I think tropical development is very possible in the northern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, any system should remain fairly weak (Tropical Depreesion or a low end Tropical Storm) due to a combination of it being close to land and only marginally favorable environmental conditions.