Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 05, 2010

the small low pressure area in the extreme southwestern Gulf
of Mexico has developed enough organized convection to warrant
it being declared a tropical depression this evening.
Curved bands are readily apparent on the Alvarado Mexico radar
site...and a 2340 UTC windsat pass also shows a distinct curved
band signature. Satellite classifications from TAFB/SAB are both
t1.5...25 kt...and this will be used as the initial intensity.
Conditions appear quite favorable for intensification until landfall
due to very warm water and light wind shear. All of the models
except the HWRF show strengthening and the official forecast is a
little higher than most of the guidance.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 005/6. The cyclone should
turn toward the north-northwest and northwest tomorrow and increase
its forward speed as middle-tropospheric ridging builds across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. The global models are in good agreement on
this scenario...although there are some differences on when the
left turn occurs. The official forecast lies near the dynamical
model consensus...and is a little north of the GFS model.

The track and intensity forecast requires the issuance of tropical
storm warnings for a portion of the Mexican coast at this time.