If the National Hurricane Center's forecast verifies, 93L will enter the GOM south of Cuba. The shear is easing, and the ridge over Texas is supposed to start moving off to the east. The ridge allows a dry heat, but it also blocks tropical systems from heading our way. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...?entrynum=1513


Forecast for 93L NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week, I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

ETA:NHC has risen the threat of development in the next 48 hours into the 30-50%.