Category 5 Cyclone Aimed at Strait of Hormuz
June 04, 2007 18 29 GMT
A Category 5 cyclone with winds of up to 195 miles per hour is heading toward one of the world's most productive energy basins, threatening local devastation and global disruption at a point at which oil prices are already flirting with record highs. For once, the region in question is not the Gulf of Mexico. There is cause for concern; Cyclone Gonu is headed directly for the Strait of Hormuz.
The cyclone is rotating counterclockwise -- as it would in the Gulf of Mexico -- meaning that, should it enter the Persian Gulf, the gulf's west coast would suffer the most serious damage. Along the west coast, low-lying areas are the norm, and there are few barrier islands like the ones that line the Gulf of Mexico to absorb much of the storm surge that could therefore penetrate miles inland.
Like all weather phenomena, hurricanes and cyclones are notoriously fickle, so there is (thankfully) no guarantee Gonu will enter the Persian Gulf, much less wreck it. But there are two facilities that bear specific mention: the Ras Tanura and Ras al-Juaymah oil loading platforms in Saudi Arabia. So far, the chances of either of these facilities suffering a direct hit are very slim -- Gonu is still 750 miles away from those export points -- but they collectively pump nearly 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude. These facilities, while critical to global energy supplies and -- due to their size -- largely immune to terrorist attacks, are not particularly hurricane resistant. After all, they were built in an area where such storms are almost unheard of. Other (hardly insignificant) energy installations dot the region in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates -- most of them on the west coast. Luckily, there is little offshore production in the Persian Gulf -- unlike in the Gulf of Mexico -- so there is unlikely to be much permanent damage to the oil production facilities themselves.
More likely is shipping disruption. Right now, Gonu is on a collision course with the Strait of Hormuz, a major chokepoint that transits some 17 million bpd of crude. Within the next few hours, the tankers and supertankers -- not to mention the massive container ships that often visit regional hubs in the United Arab Emirates -- that ply that route will be scurrying out of the storm's way. In the Gulf of Mexico, such storm-dodging is an annual ritual that is no major concern, but in the world's "Cradle of Oil," this is a completely new sport, and even a short disruption with minimal damage is sure to send the price of a barrel of crude sharply upward.
Currently the "best guess" indicates Gonu will slowly lose force to be "only" Category 3 when it makes initial landfall in Oman, forecast for June 5 at 6 p.m. local time.
