Sunday, July 20, 2008
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1145 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008
...FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT 1145 AM EDT...1545 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE
BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1145 AM EDT...1545Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270
MILES...435 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES...365
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE DOLLY REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY
ONCE DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TODAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP
TO 8 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1145 AM EDT POSITION...18.4 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Saturday, July 19, 2008
If true this should make the hair on the back of your neck stand up at attention...
By Brian Faler and Alison Vekshin
More Photos/Details
July 18 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic lawmakers sought to put a constraint on the Treasury's request for unlimited power to buy and lend to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a step that didn't temper Secretary Henry Paulson's optimism about a deal.
``Any expenditure under this bill would be subject to the debt limit,'' House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank told reporters in Washington yesterday, referring to the ceiling on federal government borrowing. That ``is a cap in effect on the amount'' of taxpayer funds officials can use to help finance the mortgage firms, he said.
Frank's comments reflect lawmakers' concern that the Paulson proposal may expose the taxpayer to unlimited risk and confer unprecedented authority. The Treasury chief reiterated his optimism about a deal by the end of next week, indicating he may be open to compromise on a measure he said will restore investor confidence in the beleaguered companies.
Paulson spent a second straight day lobbying on Capitol Hill after legislators balked at a July 15 hearing at his initial request, which Treasury officials anticipated would be enacted this week. Paulson is trying to provide a backstop to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after their shares fell to the lowest level in more than 17 years this month, threatening to limit their ability to alleviate the mortgage-market collapse.
``I feel even better than I did yesterday in my confidence level that we will come to a very acceptable result, and come to it next week,'' Paulson told reporters yesterday.
Shares Gain
Fannie Mae shares rose for second day, the first back-to- back gain in a month, to $10.93 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Freddie Mac advanced to $8.33, also the second consecutive increase.
Freddie Mac may raise as much as $10 billion by selling new shares, a move that might help avoid a government rescue for it and Fannie Mae, the Wall Street Journal reported today, citing people it didn't identify.
Paulson, since announcing his plan Sunday, July 13, has repeatedly called for power to make ``unspecified'' equity purchases in the two companies, which account for about half of the $12 trillion U.S. mortgage market. He wants a similar right to extend the credit lines the firms have with the Treasury.
Paulson has said limits to his power would impede the measure's ability to buttress investor confidence. The Treasury had sought for it to be outside the borrowing ceiling.
``People talk about trillions of dollars,'' said Frank, of Massachusetts. This ``makes it clear that nothing remotely like that order of magnitude is contemplated even in the worst case.''
No Cost Seen
Frank added that he doesn't expect the plan to incur significant costs because it will spur confidence in the lenders, limiting the need for public money. Paulson has said he doesn't anticipate exercising the proposed authority, noting regulators' comments that the firms are already adequately capitalized.
The debt limit is $9.815 trillion and the current outstanding public debt subject to that limit is about $9.4 trillion, according to the Treasury.
``Today the Treasury has enough unused borrowing authority to give Fannie and Freddie all the support they might need,'' said Louis Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC, a Jersey City, New Jersey-based research firm.
Paulson will work with House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel, of New York, and Budget Committee chief John Spratt, of South Carolina, on the debt limit issue, Frank said. Paulson declined to respond to a reporter's question on the matter yesterday.
Other Limits
Frank, whose committee oversees housing, said earlier this week that he intended to place other restrictions in the legislation, including limits on dividend payments by the firms and a requirement for regulators to approve top officers' compensation.
House lawmakers are working on adding the measure in an existing housing bill that aims to stem the record surge in mortgage foreclosures and set up a new, stronger regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The legislation would then go to the Senate.
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, said lawmakers are considering other ways of trying to assure taxpayers that ``this thing isn't a runaway horse,'' while declining to discuss specifics.
``We're getting close to some ideas that can work that will have negligible, if any, market implications, which is critical,'' Dodd said.
$4 Billion
House Democrats plan to include in their bill a measure that President George W. Bush has threatened to veto, signaling they're prepared to push the administration on the issue.
The proposal would send almost $4 billion to communities to buy up foreclosed properties. The White House has said it would benefit lenders who own the vacated properties, not homeowners.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, said she doubted Bush would make good on the veto threat.
``I don't think the president is going to veto this bill,'' Pelosi said. Foreclosed properties ``are now abandoned properties, taking down communities,'' she said.
Frank said the House will probably vote on the combined measure July 23 before sending it on to the Senate.
House Minority Leader John Boehner, an Ohio Republican who proposed delaying consideration of the plan so that lawmakers could have more time to study it, said two days ago there's no question ``that this will become law and become law very soon.''
By Brian Faler and Alison Vekshin
More Photos/Details
July 18 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic lawmakers sought to put a constraint on the Treasury's request for unlimited power to buy and lend to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a step that didn't temper Secretary Henry Paulson's optimism about a deal.
``Any expenditure under this bill would be subject to the debt limit,'' House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank told reporters in Washington yesterday, referring to the ceiling on federal government borrowing. That ``is a cap in effect on the amount'' of taxpayer funds officials can use to help finance the mortgage firms, he said.
Frank's comments reflect lawmakers' concern that the Paulson proposal may expose the taxpayer to unlimited risk and confer unprecedented authority. The Treasury chief reiterated his optimism about a deal by the end of next week, indicating he may be open to compromise on a measure he said will restore investor confidence in the beleaguered companies.
Paulson spent a second straight day lobbying on Capitol Hill after legislators balked at a July 15 hearing at his initial request, which Treasury officials anticipated would be enacted this week. Paulson is trying to provide a backstop to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after their shares fell to the lowest level in more than 17 years this month, threatening to limit their ability to alleviate the mortgage-market collapse.
``I feel even better than I did yesterday in my confidence level that we will come to a very acceptable result, and come to it next week,'' Paulson told reporters yesterday.
Shares Gain
Fannie Mae shares rose for second day, the first back-to- back gain in a month, to $10.93 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Freddie Mac advanced to $8.33, also the second consecutive increase.
Freddie Mac may raise as much as $10 billion by selling new shares, a move that might help avoid a government rescue for it and Fannie Mae, the Wall Street Journal reported today, citing people it didn't identify.
Paulson, since announcing his plan Sunday, July 13, has repeatedly called for power to make ``unspecified'' equity purchases in the two companies, which account for about half of the $12 trillion U.S. mortgage market. He wants a similar right to extend the credit lines the firms have with the Treasury.
Paulson has said limits to his power would impede the measure's ability to buttress investor confidence. The Treasury had sought for it to be outside the borrowing ceiling.
``People talk about trillions of dollars,'' said Frank, of Massachusetts. This ``makes it clear that nothing remotely like that order of magnitude is contemplated even in the worst case.''
No Cost Seen
Frank added that he doesn't expect the plan to incur significant costs because it will spur confidence in the lenders, limiting the need for public money. Paulson has said he doesn't anticipate exercising the proposed authority, noting regulators' comments that the firms are already adequately capitalized.
The debt limit is $9.815 trillion and the current outstanding public debt subject to that limit is about $9.4 trillion, according to the Treasury.
``Today the Treasury has enough unused borrowing authority to give Fannie and Freddie all the support they might need,'' said Louis Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC, a Jersey City, New Jersey-based research firm.
Paulson will work with House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel, of New York, and Budget Committee chief John Spratt, of South Carolina, on the debt limit issue, Frank said. Paulson declined to respond to a reporter's question on the matter yesterday.
Other Limits
Frank, whose committee oversees housing, said earlier this week that he intended to place other restrictions in the legislation, including limits on dividend payments by the firms and a requirement for regulators to approve top officers' compensation.
House lawmakers are working on adding the measure in an existing housing bill that aims to stem the record surge in mortgage foreclosures and set up a new, stronger regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The legislation would then go to the Senate.
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, said lawmakers are considering other ways of trying to assure taxpayers that ``this thing isn't a runaway horse,'' while declining to discuss specifics.
``We're getting close to some ideas that can work that will have negligible, if any, market implications, which is critical,'' Dodd said.
$4 Billion
House Democrats plan to include in their bill a measure that President George W. Bush has threatened to veto, signaling they're prepared to push the administration on the issue.
The proposal would send almost $4 billion to communities to buy up foreclosed properties. The White House has said it would benefit lenders who own the vacated properties, not homeowners.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, said she doubted Bush would make good on the veto threat.
``I don't think the president is going to veto this bill,'' Pelosi said. Foreclosed properties ``are now abandoned properties, taking down communities,'' she said.
Frank said the House will probably vote on the combined measure July 23 before sending it on to the Senate.
House Minority Leader John Boehner, an Ohio Republican who proposed delaying consideration of the plan so that lawmakers could have more time to study it, said two days ago there's no question ``that this will become law and become law very soon.''
Tropical Wave Is Along 71w/72w S Of 18n With A 1008 Mb Low Along The Wave Axis Near 15n Moving Wnw 15-20 Kt. a Tropical Cyclone
Could Form At Any Time As The System Moves Toward The Wnw. All Interests In Jamaica...the Cayman Islands...and The Northwestern Caribbean Sea Should Continue To Monitor The Progress Of This System. Locally Heavy Rainfall Is Moving Across Hispaniola And Will Spread Across Jamaica Later This Evening. Scattered Showers/thunderstorms Are N Of 14n To Over Hispaniola Between W Puerto Rico And E Cuba/windward Passage. Scattered Showers/isolated Thunderstorms Cover The Remainder Of Between 66w-78w.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Special Tropical Disturbance Statement Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 1125 Am Edt Fri Jul 18 2008
This Statement Concerns Two Tropical Weather Systems. Satellite Images Indicate That The Area Of Low Pressure Located In The Central Caribbean Sea About 400 Miles Southeast Of Jamaica Continues To Become Better-organized. An Air Force Reserve Unit Reconnaissance Aircraft Is Scheduled To Investigate This System This Afternoon To Determine If A Tropical Depression Or Tropical Storm Has Formed. All Interests In The Central And Western Caribbean Sea Should Continue To Monitor The Progress Of This System As It Moves Westward At 15-20 Mph. For Information Specific To Your Area...please Consult Statements From Your Local Weather Office.
Surface Observations And Satellite Images Indicate That A Low Pressure System Located Just Off The Coasts Of Georgia And South Carolina Is Also Becoming Better Organized. Environmental Conditions Are Conducive For Further Development...and A Tropical Depression Could Form Today Or Tomorrow. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Is Scheduled To Investigate This System Tomorrow...if Necessary. All Interests Along The Coasts Of Georgia...south Carolina...and North Carolina Should Monitor The Progress Of This System. Locally Heavy Rainfall Is Possible In These Areas During The Next Couple Of Days As This System Moves Slowly Northeastward Near The Coast. For Information Specific To Your Area...please Consult Statements From Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office. $$ Forecaster Blake/knabb
Thursday, July 17, 2008
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT WITH
A 1009 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N. THIS WAVE WILL
POSSIBLY BE INVESTIGATED LATER TODAY BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. CONDITIONS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS...
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 62W-67W WITH SCATTERED/LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NERN VENEZUELA.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
"This is a systemic financial crisis, there is no end to it,'' Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics and international business at New York University, told Bloomberg Television. ``It's a vicious circle between a contracting economy and greater credit and financial losses feeding on the economy.''
Monday, July 14, 2008
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Monday, July 07, 2008
...Bertha becomes the first hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic season...
at 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Bertha was located
near latitude 19.3 north...longitude 50.2 west or about 845 miles...
1365 km...east of the northern Leeward Islands.
Bertha is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr.
A continued west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days...as
Bertha remains over the waters of the central tropical Atlantic.
It is still too early to determine if Bertha will eventually affect
any land areas.
Maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 75 mph...120
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next couple of days.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
miles...185 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb...29.15 inches.
Repeating the 500 am AST position...19.3 N...50.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75
mph. Minimum central pressure...987 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am AST.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
Sunday, July 06, 2008
Friday, July 04, 2008
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 04, 2008
the cloud pattern of Bertha consists of a couple of clusters of
convection to the north and south of the center embedded within a
large cyclonic circulation in the low clouds. A Quikscat overpass
that was received just after the issuance of the previous
advisory...suggest that the maximum winds were around 45 kt. The
structure of the cyclone has change little since that time and the
latest Dvorak data T numbers from SAB and TAFB support a 45 kt
initial intensity.Bertha will be passing over slightly cooler waters during the next
24 hours...so no change in intensity is expected in the near term.
Between 24 and 72 hours...conditions are expected to become
conducive for gradual strengthening as SSTs increase and the shear
remains low. Models suggest that the shear could increase
thereafter...so the new forecast keeps the intensity just shy of
hurricane strength. However....it is Worth mentioning that the
SHIPS...lgem...and GFDL models forecast Bertha to become a
hurricane in 3-4 days.Bertha is moving west-northwestward at a little faster
pace...290/14. The storm should remain on this general heading
during the next 2-3 days as it is located south of a mid-level
ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The guidance has continued to
shift westward...but there remains two distinct envelopes...one
that consists of the HWRF and GFDL that turn the cyclone
northwestward beyond day 3....and the other which keeps Bertha
on a more west-northwest track. The official forecast track has
been adjusted westward to reflect the shift in the guidance.
Thursday, July 03, 2008
...Tropical depression forms over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean...
at 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 12.6 north...longitude 22.7 west or about 250
miles...405 km...south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph and
this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
for the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and
the depression could become a tropical storm later today.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.
Repeating the 500 am EDT position...12.6 N...22.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35
mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
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